WNY partner

Looking for any odd jobs that pay cash

2020.10.18 01:14 alltradesjackforhire Looking for any odd jobs that pay cash

I have a wide range of skills, and I am looking to find just about any kind of work where I would be paid cash. (Local to WNY only.)
If you don't see what you're looking for listed here, just send me a message, and I'll let you know. Any and all inquiries welcomed. I'm a hard worker, so you will get your money's worth. NO JOB TOO BIG, SMALL, OR STUPID. I'll probably do it.
My Craigslist post
Edit: punctuation/formatting
submitted by alltradesjackforhire to WNYClassifieds [link] [comments]


2020.09.19 08:44 Lady_Buffalo 35 [F4R] #Buffalo - NY / WNY / 716 Woman seeking a poly person

Hi!
I am an attached polyamorous woman seeking anther polyam person, male or female, (although seriously leaning on ladies) for the purpose of creating an emotional & romantic connection with a goal of becoming partners.
I live in the Western New York region also known as Buffalo or Niagara Falls or the 716 or WNY. I want someone local, someone I can see within a two hour’s drive.
Reddit is my go-to social media platform. I love music, cooperative & tile-based table-top board games, and long walks that go nowhere; I walk for the sake of walking. I am a liberal hipster that lives for puns.
Honestly, local, poly, and use of Reddit are a good jumping off point for chatting. After that, the devil will be in the details. Message me. Seriously, shoot me a direct message, telling me a few sentences about your polyamory experiences & something you love about Western New York. We will chat, say hello, and see how it goes.
submitted by Lady_Buffalo to polyamoryR4R [link] [comments]


2020.08.16 03:54 IronStylus Might be Buffalo-bound from Boston

Hello! Native Buffalonian here currently living in Boston. My partner and I moved here in 2019 to relocate for new jobs from LA. I was there for 15 years before taking the gig in Boston. Now due to COVID, our studio might be going 100% remote. We’re considering moving back closer to my parents (in Hamburg) and perhaps buying a home since.. ya know.. Boston is a little pricey.
I was wondering what folks thought about some of the neighborhoods in WNY as they stand now and where they’re going. While I’ve seen Buffalo grow and renew during my trips home, I’m really not 100% up on what the parts of the city have grown in what ways. We haven’t even decided whether we’re going to look in the city or in the burbs.
It would be pretty cool to get some takes on what might be a good place to look for a couple working in tech, who are in their late 30’s, who enjoy diverse and tight communities, and accessibly to food we can stuff our fat faces with.
Thanks! ❤️
submitted by IronStylus to Buffalo [link] [comments]


2020.08.15 03:40 Cheshire_Ten Pre-Pandemic soul therapy

At this time, so many of us If not all in some way have seen loss and a lot of darkness right now.
I’ll be honest, hell, long before all of this.. I have had a “black and white “ perception on life and my own self image. Before I move forward: in no way am I posting this as a sympathizer or for any recognition. Honestly I have a phobia of public recognition.. among other physical/mental disabilities I’d rather not disclose now.
Before the pandemic I worked a full time job, a sh*t job but I was working my ass off to provide for my partner and I as ‘newlyweds’.. I was the breadwinner and it was the only ego I had, until recently.
Anyway, with my medical issues, per say and this overwhelming crisis on us all. I completely crumbled. From their on, it’s been almost a domino-effect.. I got let go, I’ve been on unemployment and waiting on social security.. pill after pill, doctor appts, therapy almost every other day now..
Mind you, this is not my first roll of psych treatment. When I was 14, I ate a bottle of pills and drank my mummies favorite bottles of Chardonnay (as she wasn’t home nearly half the time in that period.. at work or wherever else. Every day.)
I’m gonna shut up about myself, because my point wasn’t to tell my life story thru all this post. The argument I’m moving forward to is how imperative Caring for the homeless (before all) and mentally disabled is during this crisis. I’ve had much distrust and my own paranoia of ‘mental health’ in the past. But recently I have found it the only option I have even for myself to live a healthier life and marriage..
I remembered something, after my appointment earlier todaythat made me kind of smile at myself.. for once.
I was discussing homelessness and problems in the “mental health” community with my dad over the phone. I’m in Ca he is in WNY over 2,000 mi apart... when I came across an awesome young Lady named Manda I found on YouTube thru invisible people. Upon listening to her awesome story, i began reminiscing about an encounter I had with a young homeless girl, probably not much older than me.. (I’m 24) it was early last autumn
One afternoon I was pulling in to my local shopping center to get some fast food. That day I was livid about something.. can’t exactly remember what happened but I recall I wasn’t exactly the nicest guy to encounter that day. Anyway, before I pulled in to the drive thru of my destination: I saw the young girl i mentioned earlier, struggling with a baby stroller, obviously full of what Worldly possessions she still had. It immediately put me in my place and struck me out of whatever distractions I had.
I remember, it had to have been over 90 degrees and any of you who know SoCal heat it’s NOT cool to be out for more than a few minutes!! I pulled up and had about 10 dollars and some change in my console. I immediately handed it to her and she said “thanks you didn’t have to” not thinking I just said “I felt like it. Please be safe sweetie..” before I pulled off, she tapped on my window with tears in her eyes and a weary but gorgeous little grin on her lips. What she said will always resonate in my mind.. “You know, most people don’t think of me at all. You don’t know how much it meant to hear you say ‘be safe’. Thanks again..” and she quickly walked off under the shade of the restaurant.
I wish I kept things like that encounter on my mind each day. It’d remind me how awesome life still kinda is...
As simple and mundane as the salutation “be safe” is starting to become. I’m starting to recall how much it meant to that girl that day last year.. I hope she’s still somewhere now, but safe and warm with what she truly needs. I hope all people, no matter what background on the streets today can find home again soon.. The words “be safe” to a complete stranger could mean everything or nothing. I’m happy to know what it means to me..
submitted by Cheshire_Ten to mentalhealth [link] [comments]


2020.05.29 20:53 laleluoom A brief Guide to Boardgames for Newcomers

Hello dwellers, I’m a German guy who just recently got into the hobby, and spent a long time researching… well, a lot of stuff. The following is intended as a reference or perhaps a guide for newcomers who might find themselves lost. It is a long read, but I think it may save you a lot of “work” and touch topics that you might not have considered yet. Headlines are written in bold letters, so you could just scan through it or simply use Ctrl+F to see if something interests you. I mentioned my nationality so you can put some statements further down into perspective. I apologize in advance for any inconsistencies, I wrote this over a longer timespan. Anyway, here goes:
Boardgamegeek
Chances are you already heard about this infamous website. Its main purpose is to serve as a database for boardgames. All games (and many expansions) are assigned an individual score from 1 (bad) to 10 (good), one of which is the community rating, and the other a weighted rating that BGG implemented to prevent games with low review counts to reach unproportonally high ratings. As a rule of thumb, if a game you are considering to buy has a score of 6.5 or lower (which is still fine of course), you should think twice. Assigned to each game (by the community) are also: a “good” and a recommended number of players, the estimated length of the game and its “weight” on a scale from 1 (easy) to 5 (hard). There’s been some criticism regarding that simple weight score, because it does not differentiate between “difficulty to learn” and “difficulty to play”, but it is still a solid indicator of how heavy a game is. For starters, if you are trying to introduce new people to the hobby, games with weight < 2.5 might be a good starting point (for a brief list of recommendations as well as links to BGG sites, scroll all the way down).
Another important part of each game’s site is the “Expansions” tab, but we will get to that later.
BGG also hosts a market place that I have used twice so far, with great experience. You can directly access it by searching for the “Buy” button on your desired game’s BGG site. On the “Geek Market”, you’ll find listings of sellers, with their location next to their names. Make sure to read the description first, because not all listings are necessarily offering the full game.
There is a lot more going on on BGG, but I want to finish off by mentioning the Top 100, which is led by Gloomhaven. There is a latent debate about how representative that list is, but most games in the Top 100 are widely considered excellent, and they cover many different “genres”.
Kickstarter
Kickstarter is a crowdfunding platform for new ideas of all kinds, not only boardgames. Still, boardgames are introduced on Kickstarter frequently, and they require a certain amount of money from so-called “backers” (people who support the project financially) who pick a certain “pledge” (prices usually don’t contain shipping cost already, which is often fairly high for non-USAmericans). If enough money is collected, only then the product can actually be produced. Backers receive what they pledged for, usually 1 or even 2 years later. Most Kickstarter campaigns last for about 30 days, some are much shorter. Once the funding goal for a game has been reached, many projects will offer “stretch goals”, extra content that is unlocked gradually as more money is pledged. Again, there are some pros and cons, but remember: All that glitters is not gold, which is especially true for miniatures. You’ll run out of precious shelf space soon enough. Kickstarter projects toying with customers’ fear of missing out is a bad trend in my opinion. Some projects even offer Kickstarter Exclusive Content which is almost impossible to get your hands on later, for exmaple the “Unspeakable Box” that was part of the “Cthulhu: Death may die” Kickstarter. Dealing with that can be frustrating, so be warned.
In general, a very important question you must ask yourself is, if that game you saw for 150$ + shipping with all those stretch goals and exclusives is worth more than the number of throughly reviewed, excellent games out there that you could get instead. If money is not an issue for you at all, and you have empty shelves to fill, these concerns become less relevant.
One thing I want to mention is that for people with no credit or debit card, it may be hard to find a reliable and inexpensive way of payment. I spent days researching on that, and finally settled with the “boon” banking app. Setting it up may take a while, and since it’s a proper bank managing the whole thing, you’ll have to confirm identity for “boon+” which is highly recommended and free. It works like this: You use “SEPA” to send money to your virtual prepaid credit card (can’t go below 0), and are free to use it about 1 or 2 days later. Anyway, think carefully before entrusting someone with your personal data.
To finish off this topic, here is a “calendar” of some upcoming boardgames on Kickstarter, maintained by u/Zelbinian . Props to him.
Out-of-print (OOP) games
Unfortunately, not all games are continued indefinitely. Contracts and licences expire, money has to be made. That includes games like Android Netrunner LCG (see section below), Forbidden Stars and Battlestar Galactica. Your best bet is to try and find these games second-hand (see section “buying used”) for somewhat reasonable prices, or maybe go for a different language (see section “Buying in other languages”). Even if an OOP base game is still affordable, the price of its better expansions will often increase rapidly. The Reign and Reverie expansion for Android Netrunner, which was released in 2018 at a price of about 30$, costs at least 200$ at the time I wrote this, and there are only 2 offers I could find. For some games, like Android Netrunner, you may be lucky enough to find so-called proxies, aka scans of all cards for you to print and use. Don’t waste your money, just print them on paper and sleeve them along with the others in matte sleeves (more under section “Sleeves”). Be careful not to break any laws. Especially games that are still printed and expanded are most likely not to be copied or custom printed.
Living Card Games (LCGs)
A Living Card Game like Arkham Horror LCG is any card game that receives (somewhat) regular expansions with fixed content, some of which may be part of a “cycle”, a set of expansions that is connected thematically or storywise. I want to make very clear that it makes little sense to buy expansions packs from different cycles in random order. As a newcomer, you should first try and get a brief overview. Resources such as the .pdf files in this BGG thread for the Arkham Horror LCG will be very useful. Of course, you should start with the base set / core game before going for expansions. While you should stick to the release order within cycles, whole cycles and deluxe / standalone expansions can usually be bought and played in any order. If you are unsure what expansions to go for first, I recommend minding three criteria: Age, Price and Rating on BGG. Age is important because older expansions may not be reprinted, so getting them first could make sense. Price is important because you will probably find complete cycles for a cheaper price later, rather than following along with the newest releases. BGG Rating is a great reference if you do not know where to start after the base game. Just make sure to check the number of ratings to put the rating into perspective.
Famous and high-rated LCGs include Arkham Horror LCG, Marvel Champions LCG and Android Netrunner LCG, most of which are ideally or exclusively played with 2 players.
Unfortunately, LCGs can become very expensive. A whole cycle of the Arkham Horror LCG, consisting of one “cycle core box” (Example here) and 6 mini-expansions costs anywhere between 80$ and 120$ if you buy new. Replayability may or may not be an issue, depending on the LCG.
Most LCGs have very poor storage solutions (if any) by default. For more information, see section “Storage”.
Legacy” Games
Legacy Games like Clank! Legacy: Aquisitions Incorporated and Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 are spinoffs of standalone games that make for a campaign-like, session-oriented playthrough of their respective base games (in this case: Clank! and Pandemic). You do not need to own the base game, but trying it first will give you an idea if you will like the Legacy game or not. In general, Legacy Games cannot be used to play the base game after you are done with them, because you will put stickers on the board, tear apart cards and so on. Think of them as huge EXIT games with a much better price/value ratio.
Storage
Kallax. Next!
...actually, ikea’s Kallax is a cheap, elegant and practical way of not only storing your boardgames, but also presenting them. A 2x4 shelf costs about 60 bucks here. Only but the most monstrous boardgame boxes such as Mage Knight: Ultimate Edition, Gloomhaven, Too many Bones or War of the Ring 2nd Edition will manage to escape a Kallax’ grasp, everything else will fit in there smoothly. For proof, just go through this sub and check some “[COMC]” posts (I think it means “Cast on my Collection”, but it could just as well be something completely different). 75% of them will be black Kallax shelves stuffed with boardgames, and organizing them is so fun all the time sometimes, haha!
You can also try to store some of your games vertically rather than horizontally. Some boxes come with one side printed sideways for this very purpose. Just make sure to secure everything inside the box with rubber bands and ZIP bags.
Now that we found one possible solution for storing the boxes as a whole, let’s now tackle the much-harder-to-solve issue of storing what’s INSIDE of them (section on sleeves is further down). If the only games you ever played were Wizard and Catan (which comes with an okay storage solution by default), know that this is not the norm. In this part of the section, we will look into several issues regarding component storage and solutions using specific games as examples.

Gaming Mat
After reading into it for a while, it became clear that there is no “best gaming mat”. So to keep it short and simple: Neoprene (material) is widely appreciated, but a cheap fitness mat from amazon (or, preferrably, anywhere else) may work very well, too. All I can say is, don’t put drinks on the table if you can’t live without the game that’s on the table.
Sleeves
There is a large variety of sellers and brands to choose from. You will find a lot of info in several threads such as this, so I will only give a very brief overview with 2 recommendations. First of all, why sleeve? It's not somethign you need to do with all your cards, I'd say you should only sleeve when necessary. After all, a pack of 100 acceptable sleeves can cost anywhere between 2 and 12 bucks (or more if you really want to). Sleeve the cards that you shuffle constantly and, most importantly, you might want to sleeve that card game which went OOP (out of print) like Android Netrunner.
If you are unsure what size you need, check this thread. Many cards will have “standard” size, which means they have the same dimensions as “MtG” (Magic the Gathering) cards. Knowing this will make finding fitting sleeves a lot easier.
Next, think if you want clear or matte sleeves. Clear sleeves may be cheaper, and you get to see the actual back of your cards. Matte sleeves on the other hand have 2 advantages: First, you can pick colours of your liking and second, you can make cheap and expensive proxies likewise indistinguishable from other card for playing. I’m doing this for Android Netrunner, and it works well if you use somewhat sturdy paper. A device like this will help.
For affordable clear sleeves I re-recommend Swan Panasia, heard a lot of good things. For matte sleeves, I ordered a small number of Ultra Pro Eclipse Sleeves. They are pretty expensive tho, about 8 bucks for 100 sleeves.
Buying
This is a somewhat random list with bits of general advice.
Do not buy expensive games that your friends already own.
Try and try games before buying them, for example on Tabletop Simulator.
Don’t buy complex games unless you are sure they will see table time.
Before buying in other languages, make sure the game is either light on language or your potential players won’t mind it. Check BGG forums for a great number of resources, including rulebook translation into other languages. There’s been one for Brass: Birmingham years before it received a German edition.
When ordering from another country, or just in general, try and buy in bulk to save shipping.
Consider buying games as a group, for example Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 or Gloomhaven.
Watch reviews by established Youtubers like Shut up & sit down or No Pun Included for ideas.
If you are German, use the site brettspiel-angebote.de. If you are not, go and create a version of that site for your country. Refer to a game's BGG site to learn about ideal player count, length and complexity. Americans probably have a variety of options to choose from which I am not aware of, but one of them is this subreddit.
You can use BGG as a reference to find what expansion may be the best for your core game. Hit the “Expansions” tab, then sort by average rating. Mind the number of reviews, if it’s too low, the rating may not be representative. If you are not buying English, consider if you should. Is the game light on language? Are the expansions out of print in your language? Then you may want to buy the English version.
Stay away from unreviewed games on Kickstarter unless you are 100% sure the game is worth the price and will see table time. Do not forget about shipping, which may increase if material from stretch goals is included.
The German “equivalent” and partner to Kickstarter is the spieleschmiede from spiele-offensive.de.
If there is no particular order in which you want to buy the games on your wishlist, and there are no big sales, try and get the ones that are out of print (soon) first. Price will only go up, so you won’t lose much even if you end up not liking and reselling the game.
Play a game at least 3 times with an open mind before deciding if you like it or not.
Do not hesitate to buy used (especially for cheaper games), I had great experiences using the BGG marketplace and ebay. Make sure the seller is trustworthy, and always doublecheck the articles’s description and the game’s normal price. Often enough you’ll see offers where the seller wants more money than you’d pay new. Stay away from those guys.
No matter where you buy, unless the seller has a good reputation and you do not mind breaking Paypal’s rules, do not pay by “send[ing] money to a friend”. Serious sellers will probably agree to take the proper Paypal route if you offer them to pay extra for the Paypal fee (0.35€ + 2.5% of the price in Europe). That way, you get Paypal’s buyer protection.
The current pandemic may have you buy a lot more now that you are not playing. Don’t over do it, and make sure to coordinate your purchases with your gaming group if you have one.
Buying can become a bad habit. From what I gathered so far, a lot of people people on here have made that experience (or are going to make it). Here’s a link to a relevant thread. Unfortunately, as I am writing this, the top commentor has deleted his post (or it was removed by a mod), but what he basically said is, get your finances and your dopamine under control (goddammit!).
Last but not least, be patient! If your desired game is still available in large quantities, or seeing a reprint soon, there is no reason to rush it for a high price.
Solo Gaming
...isn’t quite the same as “classic” boardgaming. Make sure you like the concept before buying that Mage Knight: Ultimated Edition for 80 bucks. I think your best bet is to get games which not only fit your taste, but also offer an optional and well working solo mode, like Terraforming Mars. For some games, you’ll find solo variations on the BGG forums. Perhaps check them out to see if you already own a solo-playable candidate?
2-player Games
These can be hit or miss with your (playing) partner, so again you are well adviced to try games that are either cheap or come with an optional 2-player mode first (like, again, Terraforming Mars, Quacks of Quedlinburg, Castles of Burgundy, Race for the Galaxy, Hanabi (cooperative), Ticket to ride, Dominion, Spirit Island (heavy, cooperative), Marvel Champions LCG or Arkham Horror LCG (expensive). I bought most of my first 2-player games according to recommendation threads and BGG’s Top 100 list and wasn’t disappointed twice. Keyforge didn’t really work out well, and its resell value is horrible because people just assume you are trying to get rid of underwhelming decks. Anyway, for dedicated 2-player games you may want to start with cheaper, lighter games that you think fit your partner’s taste. A brief list of examples: Fox in the Forest, Patchwork, Hive or Hive Pocket, 7 Wonders: Duel, Air Land & Sea or Mandala. For dedicated cooperative 2-player games, check out Codenames: Duet or Aeon’s End. Arkham Horror LCG and Marvel Champions LCG will work best with 2 people as well.
Make sure to read the rules and play a short test round first for heavier games if you think your partner may get bored or he/she is really impatient in general. Looking up rules in the middle of the game can become very annoying. I haven’t tried it yet, but maybe use a timer every turn if the issue comes up. That will also give you a chance to point out potential hypocrisy regarding percepted and actual turn length. Of course, this is kind of an extreme measure and may not lead anywhere really. Some people just are not blessed with patience, and to deal with that, either get more people to the table for inter-turn-conversation, actually reduce your turn time somehow or avoid heavier games. Real-time games may also do the trick, but I can’t think of any that are working for 2 players.
Niche” Games
Niche games here refer to stuff like Captain Sonar, Gloomhaven or War of the Ring 2nd Edition. These may be hard to get to the table, either due to their (ideal) player count, their playing time or their complexity. Or a combination of these three (Twilight Imperium). As a general rule, as mentioned above, when you are considering to buy a game, do not listen to uncle dopamine who’s telling you that buying this 150$ game will get you and your friends the best time of your lives. Only buy them if you can actually see them being played. Make sure you know beforehand how a game is supposed to be played, if you need a dedicated group, how long it takes to read the rules, if they are well written and so on. The higher the price, the more careful you should be. 150$ (and everything close to it) is already crazy expensive, do not be fooled by current Kickstarter prices. There are cheaper, often better games waiting for you to be played as well.
(Semi-)Cooperative Games
There’s not much to say about cooperative games I guess, except that they are mostly “PvE” (Player versus Environment). Good and cheap starting options are Hanabi, The Crew, Magic Maze, 5-Minute-Dungeon, Pandemic & Pandemic: Legacy: Season 1 and, the game that I love with all my heart and that is the main reason I got into the hobby, Mansions of Madness 2nd Edition (expensive and requires an app).
But there are also semi-cooperative games. These usually include at least the possibility of one of your “friends” being a betrayer… Semi-cooperative games come in different falvours, but they will often use hidden information of some sorts. Great options out there, like Insider, Human Punishment (ridiculous but I absolutely love it), the classic, player-elimination-featuring Werewolf, the new and different One-Night-Werewolf, the infamous but expensive (and player-elimination-featuring despite its long play-time) Nemesis with a currently ongoing Kickstarter campaign and Dead of Winter, which I haven’t tried myself yet, but seems great although it’s also hit or miss apparently.
Party” Games
Party Games here refer to light games that are quick to teach and work well with large groups. Most of these are reasonably cheap. If you are interested, have a look at Just One, Insider, Wavelength ("Perfect Match" in German), Human Punishment, Decrypto & Codenames: Pictures and, of course, Twister (fight me).
Print & Play (PnP)
Print & Play – Games are, as the name suggests, games that you can print and play right away, at least theoretically. It my take some work to have the components look good, but many games do not require many components. For exmaple, I found a PnP version of Air, Land & Sea (legally of course) which usually costs about 15 bucks. If you do PnP card games, perhaps you could use some matte sleeves so your astounding works of craftsmanship are harder to tell apart. Some PnP games are only offered for a short time.
Tabletop Simulator
This is a Virtual Reality – compatible software which offers barely more than a playground for script kiddies (God bless them), who took the opportunity to imitate real games like Mage Knight and Wingspan almost flawlessly. I do not like It myself, but the software (on Steam) is rather cheap and offers tons of games for free. It is thus a great option to test games or just play them with your friends as a substitute in the ongoing pandemic. But be careful, I heard word that some “big” games are being taken down by Asmodee, and other publishers may follow. Which they have every right to do of course, but I doubt it ever hurt their sales, quite the opposite actually. But anyway.
Games that got me into the Hobby
This is what this post was going to be about before I decided to take the time and try to write a brief overview for newcomers. I played board and card games for as long as I can remember, like Yugioh and Catan. But It wasn’t until a friend showed me the Lovecraft-inspired Mansions of Madness 2nd Edition that I thought “Yeah, maybe this hobby is cool”. So props to him. I realized that what got me into the hobby was not just the fun I had playing boardgames.It’s theme. Theme is what makes a game interesting before you even look at the rules or components. Theme is what makes Human Punishment stand out for me, theme is what separates a classic card game from Fox in the Forest, and it’s theme that makes people like Battle for Hogwarts despite its numerous shortcomings. So when a game had weak theme and still managed to convince me, such as Codenames: Pictures or Just One, all the better. Until now, apart from a few games that were (soon) OOP, I focussed mostly on collecting games for any group, that means size and playtime + complexity, which are similar but do not always overlap. Here are my recommendations for games to start with, and their current estimated price in Germany (in €) according to brettspiel-angebote.de, which hopefully serves as a reference for buyers from other countries. You'll often pay much less when you are waiting for sales! If you can't wait, at least buy local if possible.
2 players: Fox in the Forest (~20€), Castles of Burgundy (~38€), Patchwotk (20€), Race for the Galaxy (~30€), Hanabi (~7€).
3&4 players: Quacks of Quedlinburg (~21€), Love Letter (~8€), Roll for the Galaxy (~39€), The Crew (~12€), Magic Maze (~21€), Mansions of Madness 2nd Edition (~80€), 7 Wonders (~36€), Terraforming Mars (~60€), Scythe (~66€), Brass: Birmingham (~60€).
5 players: Cosmic Encounter (34€), Quacks of Quedlinburg (~21€) with Herb Witches Expansion (~15€), Mysterium (~35€) or Dixit (~20€), Human Punishment (~27€), Just One (~16€).
6 players: Decrypto (~18€)or Codenames: Pictures (~18€), Wavelength ("Perfect Match" in German, 35€), Twilight Imperium (~116€), Just One (~16€), Human Punishment (~27€).
7+ players: Just check the “Party Games” section. If you are exactly 8 people, try Captain Sonar (~30€).
This Subreddit
...is amazing. It’s beyond me how there’s over a million subscribers with so few posts over the day. But oh boy is the active community active. Everyone loves talking about boardgames, and I mean, that’s what this sub is forl. Just make sure to read the rules, even though they are not super specific, it’s important to understand that you should not ask for game recommendations outside of the dedicated daily thread. Anyway, I am looking forward to look backwards when I get to build my gaming table one day, and steal all the great ideas posted here over the years for myself. So keep them coming!
Thanks for reading!
submitted by laleluoom to boardgames [link] [comments]


2020.05.27 22:40 WestCoastWuss619 Looking ~$600

Hey ya'll my partner and I (LGBTQ) are looking for a roommate situation. We're both remote workers and just want to be out of the cold of WNY, so we're pretty open to multiple cities. We can do $600-$650 to start, but once quarantine is over & done with, we can do more.
We've got a sharing attitude (food, netflix, etc), 3+ years of positive rental and roommate history, references and proof of income, and no evictions. I work for a mental health community and my partner is an audio engineer & contractor. We have a (9 yr old) female cat who is spayed, healthy, clean, well behaved, and full of love. 420 friendly.
Anywhere in: California, Philadelphia, Virginia, New Jersey, NYC, Washington, or Oregon.
Edit: not looking to catch shade on a budget. Quarantine left a lot of ppl out of work. If you have a spot cool if not keep your comments to yourself
submitted by WestCoastWuss619 to redditroommates [link] [comments]


2020.05.02 20:47 buffalorosie Who is responsible for the outdoor ambient sounds of summer? Crickets, cicadas, frogs, and.. "snoring birds?" Do birds even snore?

TLDR: what living creatures are contributing to the chorus of chirps and hums that provide the background sound of every summer evening? I believe it is frogs, cicadas, and crickets, primarily. My partner is adament that birds are key noise makers of that collective sound, specifically when they are sleeping and snoring.
....
I need some help with a household debate that just won't die.
The man I love is absolutely brilliant. I'm no dummy myself, and I would say I lose at least 8/10 casual bets we make, when we differ in opinion. I'm so used to being wrong when he swears he knows something, that even though I'm pretty confident I'm right, I still have some doubts.
I've googled this topic, and the most common answer I seem to find is tree frogs and cicadas. He swears it's the birds.
If region matters: I grew up in FL and now live in WNY. My partner is from WNY, but spent 11 years as an adult in FL. You hear those sounds basically year-round in FL; during warmer months up north, you can hear it loud and clear. There's a different tone there vs here, but overall it's a pretty similar sound.
I mean, do birds even snore? I feel like that's not a thing. At least not a thing powerful enough to create the wave of sound that rolls in every evening.
Fwiw, I do find the notion of snoring birds absolutely adorable. I can't say I hate a world where he's right. But dammit, he's wrong, isn't he?
submitted by buffalorosie to NoStupidQuestions [link] [comments]


2020.04.23 23:27 Cyclops_ Anxious to accept

I got an offer in the region I most wanted: Buffalo, NY. I live in WNY and want to teach High school math. Through TFA I would most likely teach high school special education, and work on my masters in Urban Education. I guess this is a solid step in the direction of my goals, and I really do love the TFA mission, I just worry I can't hack it in a subject I'm not familiar with. I have no idea what to expect teaching special ed, and it has me apprehensive. I'm usually optimistic but I'm also moving with my partner and our son, so I really want to make the correct choice.
submitted by Cyclops_ to TeachforAmerica [link] [comments]


2020.03.17 17:08 anovelt UTSA and Community Resources Available

# Note: This list is being updated. Trying to keep it relevant to needs of UTSA Students and those with families. If you feel something should be added or removed, feel free to comment below.
---------------------------
UTSA RESOURCES
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CITY OF SAN ANTONIO RESOURCES
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INTERNET AND TELEPHONE SERVICES
Federal Communications Commisions (FCC) has launched a "Keep Americans Connected Pledge" which "calls on broadband and telephone service providers to promote connectivity for Americans impacted by the disruptions caused by the Coronavirus Pandemic.
The pledge requests companies for the next 60 days to:
  1. not terminate service to any residential or small business customers because of their inability to pay their bills due to the disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic;
  2. waive any late fees that any residential or small business customers incur because of their economic circumstances related to the coronavirus pandemic; and
  3. open its Wi-Fi hotspots to any American who needs them.
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FOOD
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DONATE BLOOD
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EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES FOR ADULTS/CHILDREN
submitted by anovelt to UTSA [link] [comments]


2020.01.29 02:11 mavvam How to opt out from NissanConnect?

Just received the following mail that basically say that Nissan can sell real time ("From time to time", like every 10 seconds we send data with 100mS resolution for the last 10 seconds) about everything you're doing ("your vehicle’s mileage and vehicle location" and "This information may include vehicle identification number (VIN), odometer readings and onboard diagnostics") to third parties ("data brokers, insurance carriers, marketing partners and other service providers", e.g. everybody).
Haven't found instructions on how to opt-out from this thing nor which car functionality I would be missing. I only use the remote start of the climate control maybe 4 times a year and can definitely do without, not worth this egregious violation of privacy. Anybody knows more?

We value your personal data and information privacy as seriously as we do our own, so we are letting you know about an update to the NissanConnect® Services Subscriber Terms and Conditions.
Like many in the industry today, Nissan is updating our terms and conditions in an effort to bring you specifically tailored products, services and programs that could potentially reduce your cost-of-ownership and bring value to your day-to-day vehicle expenses, like insurance and vehicle maintenance, should you choose to participate in them.
If you are a registered Nissan owner and NissanConnect Services subscriber, this update allows Nissan to share information such as your vehicle’s mileage and vehicle location with third parties. This is the same information that Nissan currently maintains and provides back to you within the NissanConnect Services mobile app as well as your Nissan Vehicle Health Report. Would you like to know more? See details below.•From time to time, we will share certain non-public information and data about your vehicle and its use to a variety of third parties for commercial purposes. These third parties may include data brokers, insurance carriers, marketing partners and other service providers. This information may include vehicle identification number (VIN), odometer readings and onboard diagnostics.•The updated NissanConnect Services Subscriber Terms and Conditions will take effect 30 days from the date of this email. The change does not apply to information that Nissan has collected from you or your vehicle prior to this date.•Should you have questions after reading the updated NissanConnect Services terms and conditions, please consult the Nissan Privacy Policy.Thank you for being a loyal and informed NissanConnect Services subscriber. We are committed to offering the best possible experience with NissanConnect Services. You can manage your account subscriptions online by logging onto the Nissan Owners Portal at owners.NissanUSA.com/nowners.
submitted by mavvam to leaf [link] [comments]


2019.12.09 01:05 djpotatohead 38 [M4F] #Buffalo #WNY - Looking for a cuddle partner.

I am a 38 male in the Western NY area looking for a woman or trans woman in my area to start a relationship with. I am currently in a non-monogamous relationship. Our current jobs don't allow us to see each other alot and we have decided to open up our relationship. I like going out and having fun but also like to sit at home and cuddle. I am 5'7" and 230lbs if that matters. Please contact me on here to chat!
submitted by djpotatohead to polyamoryR4R [link] [comments]


2019.11.15 11:31 domsmrc Survivor S31 Extras

Here you find all Extras/Insiders videos from this season. Here you will soon find more seasons.

S31 Pre-show
CBS Meet the Cast: Kelly Wigglesworth, Kimmi, Monica, Peih-Gee, Shirin, Spencer, Stephen, Tasha, Terry, Vytas, Woo, Abi-Maria, Andrew, Ciera, Jeff, Jeremy, Joe, Keith, Kelley Wenthworth
EW Meet the Cast: Monica, Peih-Gee, Shirin, Spencer, Stephen, Tasha, Terry, Vytas, Woo, Abi, Andrew, Ciera, Jeff Varner, Joe, Kass, Keith, Kelley Wentworth, Kelly Wiglesworth, Kimmi
Strategy Talk: Jeremy, Abi-Maria, Andrew, Ciera, Jeff, Joe, Kass, Keith, Kelley, Kelly, Kimmi, Monica, Peih-Gee, Shirin, Spemcer, Stephen, Tasha, Terry, Vytas, Woo
EW: Opening, Players surprised they got voted in, Players surprised who did not make the cut, Players on the most shameless thing they did, Players reveal who they want out of the game, Who wouldn't come back, Jeff Probst Who he was surprised made it, Jeff Probst Who was snubbed from SC, Jeff Probst Players with no shot to win, Who can't win, Challenge advantages, Immunity Idols, Location, Hiding Immunity idol at a Survivor challenge, Jeff Probst on another twist, Jeff Probst warns of the rainy season
Jeff Probst's Cast Assessment
Meet The Castaways
ET: Jeff Probst on Contestants who didn't make, Meet Bayon tribe, Meet Ta Keo tribe

S31E01
Pre-Episode: Commercial Kelley, Challenge Preview, Commercial Abi, Varner, Commercial Joe, Tasha, Commercial Kass, Keith, Commercial Kelley, Jeremy, Joe
Extras
Interviews Geeting to Know: Tasha, Terry, Vytas, Woo, Abi-Maria, Andrew, Ciera, Jeff, Jeremy, Joe, Kass, Keith, Kelley, Kelly, Kimmi, Monica, Peih-Gee, Shirin, Spencer, Stephen
Secret Scene
The Day After

S31E02
Pre-Episode: Promo
Extras
Interviews: I'm Changing My Game, I'm in A Decent Spot, I'm Sick Of It, I'm Telling No One, It's Infuriating, My Main Concern, Old Abi vs New Abi, One of the Greatest Tribes, Shangri La is Amazing, She's My Competition, We Made Out Like Bandits, What A Pain, You Just Got to Let Go, You Make It Work, He's Good People, I Dig That Stuff, I Figured It Would be Harder, I Was Completely Shocked, I Was Super Nervous, I'd Rather Vote Out Shirin
Secret Scene
The Day After

S31E03
Pre-Episode: Promo
Extras:
Interviews: People Are Talking To Me, Saved From Sure Death, We Got Our First Win, We Have A Super Hero, We Lost Half Our Tribe, An Experimental Process, Angkor is Hell, Hard Having To Start, Heat Fried His Brain, I Got It, I Played Nice, I Was Stunned, It was Just Mind Blowing, Jeff Drops a Bomb, Luck of the Draw, Milk It For As Long As I Can, Not Getting Comfortable, One Day At A Time
Secret Scene
The Day After

S31E04
Pre-Episode: Promo
Extras:
Interviews: Proud Of My Performance, The Hardest Challenge, The Most Difficult Challenge, They're Just As Capable, We Need To Win, Beauty of Survivor, Buried By Puzzle Pieces, Didn't Want To Give Up On Them, Every Second Something New, Good For My Game, I Always Want To Be First, I Am Good At Puzzles, I Was So Proud, It's Terrifying, Jeremy is The Alpha Male, My Big Voice Came in Handy, One Of My Favorite Moments, It Was Stressful, I Have No Gripes
Secret Scene
The Day After

S31E05
Extras:
Interviews: A Complete Turnaround, Don't Know If I've Felt Like That Before, I Especially Blew It, I Love Life, I Want to Stay Focused, I'm Good With Balls, It Killed Me Not To Do It, It Wasn't This Good, It's So Much Better This Time, It's Working Out, My Second Time is Way Better, Nothing Can Stop Us Now, Only People To Not Win Reward, Take One For The Team, That Touched Me, Tons of Goodies, We Made the Right Decision, You Have To Read and Run, You Want the Competition Down, You Win Some, You Lose Some
Secret Scene
The Day After

S31E06
Extras:
Interviews: It's Like it's Day One Again, One Of the Best Meals, Tarantulas Brains, The Most Iconic Challenge, The Worst Athtlete, 1000000$ Can Buy A Lot of Chicken, A Second Chance, Everything I Do is For Him, I Need Numbers, I Psyched Myself Out, I Wanted To Do a Back Flip, I Am Not Going To Be That Person, I Am Ready To Play Now, It Felt Amazing, It Ripped Out my Heart, It's a Scary Feeling, It's Constantly Changing
The Day After
Family Update

S31E07
Pre-Episode: Promo, Challenge Preview
Extras:
Interviews: I Love Poetry, I Think it Starts Now, I'm Working It, I'm Host At This Feast, Last Girl Standing, Making the Merge is Iconic, More Than Anything, My Big Question, Shooting For 10 Wins in a Row, The Game Has Not Stopped, The Merge is Big For Me, A Few More Checkboxes, A Milestone For Me is To Win, A Milestone Moment, A Pleasant Reunion, A Sense of Relief, A Walking Ball of Tension, All Eyes Out, Battle Of The Big Threats
Secret Scene
The Day After
Ponderosa

S31E08
Pre-Episode: Challenge Preview
Extras:
Interviews: The Safest Move, We're Both Self Interested, Working to My Advantage, 15 Years Later, A Constant Battle, A Danger and An Opportunity, A Great Alliance, A Life or Death Thing, A Race to the Finish, A Very Easy Vote, All Eggs in One Basket, Having a Lot Of Fun, I Couldn't Pull It Off, I Am a Biker Chick, I Am a Little Bit Happy, It's Like a Juggling Act, One Of The Best Days, Pretty Good Little Gig
Secret Scene
The Day After
Ponderosa

S31E09
Pre-Episode: Challenge Preview
Extras:
Interviews: Not An Amateur Season, They Underestimate Me, We Creamed Them, You Got To Save Yourself, 3 For 3, A Refueling Point, Another Kink In This Game, Best Worst Feeling, Can't Let The Weather Stop You, I Almost Had It, I Can Make It Through This, I Really Wanted To Win, I Thought About Jumping, I Was Shocked, I'm A Better Spencer, It Makes Me Sick, It Was a Bad Showing, It Was a Blow Out
Secret Scene
The Day After
Behind The Scenes Challenge
Ponderosa

S31E10/11
Pre-Episode: Challenge Preview,Preview
Extras:
Interviews: Spencer Winning IS Great, Tasha 2.0, The Best Experience, The Coolest Experience, Things Have Turned Around, This Is Great, What I Think About, A Feisty Brazilian, A Huge Advantage, A Priceless Gift, A Strong Possibility, A Super Shelter, An Awesome Challenge, Any Challenge Is Strategic, Comforts Of Home, Dream Come True, Homeless Chic, I Beat Joe, I Didn't Do So Great, I Got Played, I Had To Win This, I Hate The Rain, I Was A Little Nervous, I Was So Close, I Won The Lottery, I'm Here For A Reason, It Opened Up Everyone's Game, It Resonates With Me, It Was A No-Brainer, It's Never Ending, I've Got No Regrets, I've Got To Stay Confident, Last Night Was Horrible, Lost A Partner In Crime, No Question For Me, Reward Challenge Was Brutal
Secret Scene 1
Secret Scene 2
The Day After 1
The Day After 2
Behind The Scenes Challenge 1
Behind The Scenes Challenge 2
Ponderosa 1
Ponderosa 2

S31E12
Pre-Episode: Preview
Extras:
Interviews: Million Dollar Experience, My Hats Off To Them, Pivotal Moment, The Best Gift, The Ultimate Prize, Wentworth's Dad, A Mix of Emotions, An Hour Longer Than Me, Dose Of Confidence, Everything That I Had Hoped, I Can't Thank Her Enough, I Couldn't Ask For a Better Father, I Didn't Envy Wentworth, I Was Torn, It Felt Miserable, It Was Good to See Her, Joe's Dad, Keith's Wife, Kimmi's Dad
Secret Scene
The Day After
Behind the Scenes Challenge
Ponderosa

S31E13
Pre-Episode: Preview
Extras:
Interviews: I Wasn't Envious, I'm Running on Empty, It Would be Sweet Justice, It's Just Dangerous, Keith is a Credible Threat, My Body Gave Out, Pretty Good Deal, Time to Reflect, Unlike Anything I've Ever Seen Before, You Got to Trust Someone, You Never Know, A Force to Be Reckoned With, Adventure Of a Lifetime, He's Such a Nerd, I Didn't Have Enough Rope, I May Have To Break Her Heart, I Memorized That Puzzle, I Think I Got It Right
Secret Scene
The Day After
Behind the Scenes Challenge
Ponderosa

S31E14 (Finale)
Pre-Episode: Preview
Extras:
The Jury Speaks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Interviews: Awesome Tribal, Immunity Challenge Was Brutal, It's a Beautiful Thing
Secret Scene
The Day After 1
The Day After 2
The Day After 3
Ponderosa 1
Ponderosa 2
Ponderosa 3
Second Chance Cast Gives Thanks
Red Carpet Interviews: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
submitted by domsmrc to survivor [link] [comments]


2019.11.10 14:54 pajja [H] Specialist Gloves Fade FT 0.30 [W] Driver Gloves Crimson Weave FT 0.25>

Hello!
Looking for clean Crimson Weave Gloves
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I open for discussion, so please add me on steam.
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submitted by pajja to GlobalOffensiveTrade [link] [comments]


2019.10.06 01:48 GlobalGamingg [H] 9.5$ BTC [W] Weapon skins/Pins

b/o:Discounted weapon skins (20%+) OR easy peasy pin/Aces high pin/Welcome to the clutch pin/Overpass pin, PINS PRICES ARE NEGOTIABLE!
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submitted by GlobalGamingg to GlobalOffensiveTrade [link] [comments]


2019.10.04 23:03 gavalant PBS Targeting a November 4th Launch on YouTube TV

https://thestreamable.com/news/youtube-tv-targeting-a-november-4th-launch-for-pbs-but-could-get-pushed-back?fbclid=IwAR1YArpuRtcXZX-Ca3C39-A6qkuWNyVaktKsFkef7aRwHj0yt6J3HEn_JoA
PBS Targeting a November 4th Launch on YouTube TV by Jason Gurwin
In July, PBS announced that they had reached a carriage deal with YouTube TV. This is the first deal with a Live TV Streaming Service for PBS, which has been one of the last major holdouts from live streaming.
We’ve now learned that PBS is targeting to go live with their first partner stations on November 4th. The deal will not see all member stations come on immediately, but new local member stations will become available on YouTube TV as they choose to participate. The channels will roll-out as they become available, with some possibly slipping to mid-December or early 2020.
The deal will see not only PBS, but also PBS Kids join the streaming service. The sub-channels that are available on some PBS affiliates like Create TV and World Channel, won’t be available at least initially.
Last year, PBS shared the holdup is that streaming services want a national feed, but Rubenstein said: “…that doesn’t work for us.” PBS was looking to be treated like a local network affiliate where member channels can also show their local content. By coming to a deal for all member stations, they can now freely choose whether they want to join the service.
Under the agreement with YouTube TV, stations will have different options to distribute their channel. The simplest option is to just provide local streaming of those shows cleared for live streaming. Alternatively, PBS will deliver local programming with a digitally inserted station ID. The final option would be a national feed, similar to what FOX provides to some streamers — which only includes national programming.
While this deal has come with its share of problems, it seems this is the prime opportunity for PBS to find room in the streaming arena. As more and more people are cord cutting, obsoletion becomes a real risk for the public television broadcaster.
submitted by gavalant to youtubetv [link] [comments]


2019.06.06 08:59 annadpk Why Prabowo-Sandi Lost: Caught by the Javanese Tsunami Part 1

I really haven't been following this election unlike the 2014 and 2017 Jakarta Governor's election, but I will like to present my analysis why Prabowo legitimately thought he could win, the new challenges that faced Prabowo in 2019 and why ultimately lost. The analysis will be divided into eleven sections
  1. Why Prabowo Thought He Could Win
  2. New Challenges Faced by Prabowo in 2019
  3. Prabowo's Assets In 2019 Campaign: Epitome of Tactics over Strategy
  4. Prabowo's Strategy and How Did Prabowo Do?
  5. Caught by the Javanese Tsunami
  6. Protecting the Javanese Homeland
  7. Two Pillars of Javanese Society
  8. Playing with Stereotypes
  9. Culture Clash: Indonesian Campaign vs Javanese Campaign
  10. Rising Javanese Identity
  11. Jokowi: Javanese Muse and Storyteller
This is going to be very long, because it covers material not many people are familiar with. Jokowi is Javanese and Jokowi won because of the surge of support in the Javanese home provinces (Tanah Jawa) of Central Java, East Java and Yogyakarta. Many Indonesians understand him the way a foreigner would, because they look at him as Indonesians, not as Javanese. We need to look at election in the Javanese home provinces from a Javanese perspective to really understand what went on.
Warning: This post is 11,000 words long or 20 single space pages.. I decided to do this post, because its been a long time since I written any post like this for /Indonesia. I wanted to finish this before the official election results were announced, but it took longer than expected, because I kept revising the last 5-6 sections. Since the post is over the reddit maximum post length, I broke it down into two parts.
Why Prabowo-Sandi Lost: Caught by the Javanese Tsunami Part 1 (Sections 1-7)
Why Prabowo-Sandi Lost: Caught by the Javanese Tsunami Part 2 (Section 8-11)

WHY PRABOWO THOUGHT HE COULD WIN

Unlike many people and the polls, I thought Prabowo had a good chance of winning. Here are some of the reasons.
The gubernatorial elections of 2017-2018, particularly Sudirman Said's results in Central Java, While Sudirman Said lost by 17%, he managed to get 42% of the vote in a PDI-P strong hold against a longstanding and popular PDP-P party member, Ganjar Pranowo. Most polls expected him to get only 20% of the vote. This race was more important than the Jakarta election for Gerindra and Prabowo, because it showed them that it was possible to do well in Central Java. Said run on a modest budget, imagine a well funded effort would do in a Presidential election. The wins in Jakarta and North Sumatra, and close finish for the so-so PKS candidate in West Java gave room for optimism.
Jusuf Kalla wasn't going to be Jokowi's running mate in 2019. In 2009, Jusuf kalla won 12% or 15 Million votes. Losing Kalla most likely cost Jokowi a couple of millions votes. Jusuf Kalla is popular in Eastern Indonesia and Aceh, and not just in Sulawesi or among the Bugis, but among many non-Bugis as well. Its why Jokowi spent a lot money on infrastructure in Sulawesi to compensate for losing Kalla in 2019.
Jokowi's so-so economic performance. During the 2014 election, Jokowi had promises 7% growth, and he only managed to deliver 5%. Also some of Jokowi's economic policies weren't well thought out. Many of the infrastructure projects, like trans Papua, had a very low rate of return, which is understandable since you are building roads in the middle of nowhere.
Declining enthusiasm among Jokowi's base as a result of failure to protect Ahok and putting on Ma'ruf Amin on the ticket. If you were to measure Siandiaga Uno and Ma'ruf Amin popularity individually, Uno does a lot better. All these factors could influence voter turnout.
Ma'ruf Amin was a compromise candidate meant to appease Jokowi's backers, both the political parties and NU. Ma'ruf selection was a political calculation to maintain NU support and unity, not electoral one. If Jokowi could get NU support and pick a better VP candidate, he would have ended doing better. Mahfud MD polled better among Muslim voters than Ma'ruf. While the press thought appointment Ma'ruf would dissuade progressive and non-Muslim from voting for Jokowi, Ma'ruf. as a high ranking NU leader actually hurt Jokowi's support among non-NU Muslims more, particularly in Sumatra.

NEW CHALLENGES FACED BY PRABOWO IN 2019

Most military officers today, including Prabowo, haven;t fought peer competitors. While going against OPM or Fretlin is dangerous, its not like trying to invade Malaysia. Prabowo-Sandi campaigning in Central and East Java, from a military standpoint is like the Indonesian army invading and penetrating deep into Malaysia.
Jokowi had the benefit of Incumbency, this is particularly important for Jokowi, who's ties to PDI-P political machinery isn't strong. For those who didn't follow the 2014 election, Jokowi's 2014 campaign was poorly organized and scheduled. Jokowi didn't have access to party infrastructure and transportation as described in this New Mandala article. The PDI-P only really supported Jokowi during the last three weeks of the campaign, when Prabowo had cut Jokowi's lead to 2-3%.
The PDI-P, PKB and other coalition parties were out in force in support of Jokowi, because first the legislative and Presidential elections were held on the same day. Secondly, this was Jokowi's last term, winning this term, means that people like Puan Maharani have a chance to compete in 2024. A Prabowo-Sandi victory could mean a possible 10-15 year wait. The PDI-P and its coalition partners were much more engaged than they were in 2014.
Jokowi and coalition partners control the governorship of all the main provinces on Java - West, Central and East Java. Even in West Java, Jokowi benefited from Ridwan Kamal being the governor. His control of the governorship prevented Jokowi from losing support as he did in other provinces that Prabowo had won in 2014 like West Sumatra and NTB.

PRABOWO'S ASSETS IN THE 2019 CAMPAIGN: EPITOME OF TACTICS OVER STRATEGY

Since Prabowo started running for the President in 2004, his endeavors have often been dominated by decisions made at the last moment and short term opportunism. Only in the Presidential Election of 2014 show a build up to the election. There are three patterns one can see from Prabowo's political career over the last decade.
Going into 2019, Prabowo was left with Gerindra, an organization with no credible senior management and limited grass roots organization. The lack of a grassroots organization, is the reason why Gerindra aligns itself with the likes of PKS and FPI. However, even the PKS and other parties at the local level in Prabowo's coalition correctly sensed something was different about this election in Central and East Java, withheld support, and focused on their own campaigns. That is why I suspect Prabowo-Sandi justification in building the Postko in Central and East Java, getting the FPI and other conservative groups involved.
Role of Sandi
Despite what people believe, I don't think he was an asset. Sandi was a compromise candidate, and his biggest advantage was he brought money. But other than that he didn't really bring additional voters, no grass roots organization and no government experience. To be honest, after this campaign Sandi is toast politically. He is a political light weight, always trying to minimize damage, but at the end he comes off looking weak. When he was called sandiwara, his mother jump to his defense. As we have the riots, there are people who are willing to kill to obtain power in Indonesia, the last thing the country need is a Mommy's boy.
As for his economic acumen, you can hire a finance minister. Every cabinet in Indonesia rotates through the same dozen economists, The reality is Sandi's economic message didn't catch on with voters in Central and East Java. because the economies of Java and the outer island are fundamentally different. Added add on culture and class, to most Javanese voters, Sandi was speaking Martian.

PRABOWO STRATEGY AND HOW DID PRABOWO DO?

Prabowo had lost the 2014 Election by 8.5 Million votes or 6.3%, or if he could swing 3.15% of the vote his way he would win. He had three factors working to his advantage in 2019. The first was Kalla wasn't in the race. The second, was the negative impact of low resource prices, this impacted the economies of resource rich provinces in Sumatra and Kalimantan, impacting non-Muslims and Muslims alike. In Kalimantan, district with large Chinese and Christian majority population showed a drop in support for Jokowi compared to 2014. The third factor were new voters, who are more educated and conservative who would be voting for the first time. The factor working against Prabowo was the loss of the non-Muslim vote in non-resource provinces, particularly the minority majority provinces like NTT, Bali, North Sulawesi and Maluku.
Whatever he had gained in the outer islands, it wouldn't be enough to make up the difference. So the provinces on Java - West, East and Central Java would be critical. All Prabowo had to do was maintain his support in Javanese homeland (East, Central and Yogyakarta) and gain 1% from Jokowi in West Java, Bantan and his margins outside Java will allow him to eke out a small victory. Not altogether a unrealistic strategy, given Sudirman Said's performance in the governor's election in 2018.
For the purposes talking about the election results I am going to divide Indonesian provinces into six groups - Stable, Kalla, Resource, Javanese Homeland, non-Muslim Majority , and Outliers. The elections results can be categorized in five groups. The first are provinces that are stable. meaning their result changed by less than 5% points relative to 2014. These provinces economies also didn't show a sharp drop in per capita GDP growth like the provinces in the Resource group compare to the SBY era. The second group, are effects that benefit Prabowo, the Kalla and the resource effect The third group is the non-Muslim majority provinces. The fourth group are the Javanese homeland provinces (which also include Lampung given the majority Javanese population and very long settlement history). The last group are outliers, which include Bangka-Belitung, West Sumatra and Gorontalo. Bangka-Belitung even though its predominantly non-Javanese Muslim region, it has a long history of supporting PDI-P candidates. Megawati did better here in 2009 than she did in Central Java. Its resource economy was severely impacted by lower commodity prices, Prabowo only got 36.3% vs 32.73% in 2014. West Sumatra despite a generally healthy economy, with per capita GDP growing above 4%, Jokowi's support dropped by 10.14% points to only 12.89%. This had to do with putting Maruf Amin, an NU leader on the ticket. The last outlier, was Gorontalo, which Prabowo's support dropped from 63% to 48% even though growth in per capita GDP went from 5.89% per year to 4.87%. I still haven't figure out why Prabowo lost Gorontalo.
The first column shows the 2019 Elections Results with the Prabowo's share of the vote in the Javanese Home Provinces the same as in 2014. The second column shows the 2019 Elections Results with the Prabowo's share of the vote in the Javanese Home Province adjusted so Prabowo=Sandi's results in Central Java mirror those of Said's 2018 results. The third column contains the actual results

Provinces % of Votes in Javanese Provinces like 2014 % of Votes in Javanese Provinces like Said 2018 Actual; 2019 Results
STABLE: North Sumatra, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Banten, NTB, Central Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, North Maluku, Papua, West Papua, North Kalimantan, Overseas 29,038,542 (2014: 54,29% 2019: 54.52% +124,998 votes) 29,038,542 29,038,542
KALLA: Aceh, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi 5,868,052 (2014: 38% 2019 66.10% +2,494,919 votes) 5,868,052 5,868,052
RESOURCE: Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, Bengkulu, Riau Island, West Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, West Sulawesi 10,756,042 (2014: 45.73% 2019: 54.16% +1,673,573 votes) 10,756,042 10,756,042
jAVANESE: Lampung, Central Java, East Java, Yogyakarta 21,878,185 23,580,062 15,568,118 (2014: 41.23% 2019: 29.81% -5,968,233 votes)
NON-MUSLIM MAJORITY: Bali, NTT, North Sulawesi and Maluku 1,236,272 (2014: 36.42% 2019: 16.21% -1,540,985 votes) 1,236,272 1,236,272
OUTLIERS Bangka Belitung, West Sumatra, Gorontalo 3,080,198 (2014: 66.97% 2019: 70.94% +181,330 votes) 3,080,198 3,080,198
TOTAL 71,857,291 (49.17%) 73,559,168 (50.30) 65.651.967 (44.85%)
If you factor our the change in results in the Javanese Homeland the election results were a lot closer than many realize. There are four things one can take away from the election.
Had Prabowo's vote share in the Javanese home provinces remained the same as in 2014, he would gotten a very close result and would have bogged down the Constitutional Court and possibly lead to much more serious political unrest. Had he managed repeat what Said did in Central Java in 2018, he would have won with a thin margin.
Note: Here is the spreadsheet with breakdown province by province. The data for 2014, and 2019. For growth in per capita GDP was taken here. The census data on ethnicity was from this book by BPS.

CAUGHT BY THE JAVANESE TSUNAMI

Here is a table of showing the 4 provinces where the Javanese make a majority of the population, 74% of the Javanese population lives in these 4 provinces. I use the term Javanese Tsunami to draw parallels to the Malay Tsunami in Malaysian politics.
Province Javanese as % Total Jokowi 2014 Jokowi 2019 Change
East Java 80.0% 53% 66% 13%
Central Java 97.5% 67% 77% 10%
DI Yogyakarta 95.5% 56% 69% 13%
Lampung 63.5% 53% 60% 7%
For East Java I estimate about 59% of the Javanese population voted for Jokowi in 2014, and in 2019 about 73%. Madurese make up 17.5% of East Java's population. On Madura Island where 60% of Madurese in East Java live, Prabowo got 73% of the vote. In East Java, many districts in the North have a mixed Javanese/Madurese population, looking at the preliminary data, outside the 4 districts on Madura and 1-2 districts that have a majority Madurese population, the only district that showed no shift toward Jokowi is SBY home district of Pacitan.
In Central Java, it not only caught Prabowo-Sandi by surprise, but the provincial PDI-P organization as well. Ganjar Pranowo, the Governor of Central Java, was targeting 70% of the vote in Central Java. This was reflected down to the kabupaten level, in Sragen, PDI-P officials were targeting 74%, but got 80% according to the quick count. This was a safe assumption given that Ganjar only got 58% against Said, and Jokowi was facing a much better funded campaign in 2019 than Ganjar did in 2018. I think the PDI-P assumed Jokowi path to victory would involve getting more votes among non-Javanese Muslims than he did.
There is assumption is that religious minorities and Javanese voted for similar reasons, I don't think this is valid given that most Javanese voted along similar lines as other Muslims in the Jakarta election.
NU Madurese members still voted for Prabowo like they did in 2014, while Javanese voters in Central Java, East Java and Yogyakarta showed a large swing to Jokowi, particularly in areas where Jokowi lost or won by narrow margins. In Galur and Kota Gede Kecamatan in Yogyakarta, two Muhammadiyah areas, Prabowo got 55% in 2014, in 2019 he only managed 41 and 45% respectively. Muhammadiyah didn't endorse the two sides, but most Javanese members voted for Jokowi, most likely because they couldn't stand Rizieq Shibab with his self-appointed title "Imam Besar". In the three districts in Yogyakarta, Kulon Prago, Bantul and Sleman, Prabowo got 48%, 46% and 46% of the vote in 2014, in 2019 it dropped to 32%,32% and 33%. In contrast, Kota Yogyakarta which Prabowo got 40% of the vote, it only dropped to 34%. You see something similar in predominately Javanese districts in East Java, Prabowo won Gresik, East Java with 53% in 2014, he lost with 33% in 2019.
Jokowi's got about 74% of the Javanese vote in Javanese home provinces, and most likely above 70% of the Javanese vote in Javanese dominant districts in West Java like Indramayu and Subang. SBY in 2009 got about 57% of the Javanese vote in 2009. Even under the New Order, Golkar never got more than 70% of the vote in Central / East Java.
Given that there was large shifts in how Javanese voted from 2014 and 2019, one should ask "Why Did Javanese shift heavily to Jokowi in 2019?"

PROTECTING THE JAVANESE HOMELAND

The first reason why the Javanese shifted heavily to Jokowi in 2019 was important pillars of Javanese society felt threatened by a common threat (PKS, Gerindra and FPI). The mood in the Javanese homeland was of righteous indignation (atau kemarahan benar in Indonesian), which Jokowi and others on his side were able to channel.
THREATS FROM WEST JAVA
The Javanese think of power as a concentric circle, with Central-East Java at the center, and everything radiating outward. Serious threats have always come from either the North (Mongols and Japan) or from the West (Dutch). This continued after independence, from 1949-1960, the Darul Islam movement was centered in West Java, In 1998, riots moved from Medan to Jakarta than to West Java than to Central Java before petering out in Surabaya. During May Riots, Wiranto called troops from KODAM Diponegoro from Central Java to secure Jakarta, and that is why the riots lasted 48 hours. He couldn't trust Kostrad or KODAM Siliwangi, Today, you see the same "threats" from West Java in the form of Gerindra-PKS-FPI alliance in the 2019 Presidential Election. To the Javanese living in the Javanese home provinces, Jakarta isn't the center. but an outlying, unstable and problematic "territory".
The reason for this is since the fall of the Kingdom of Sunda in 1500s, there has been a power and cultural vacuum in West Java. The subsequent Muslim kingdoms in West Java, whether the Cirebon or Banten Sultanates, never filled the void left by the Kingdom of Sunda for the Sundanese. The Sundanese are a people in crisis. They belonged to the Dharmic world like the Javanese-Balinese, but since the fall of the Kingdom of Sunda, they have been wondering adrift,
How would your average Javanese feel when Prabowo or Sandi enters their town being escorted by FPI members? To many its like an invading army coming from the West, lead by a traitor, Prabowo. This is ironic, given that elite betrayal of the ordinary people is a common theme in Prabowo's political campaigns. Here is a video of scuffle between residents and FPI, who were guarding Prabowo in Gresik, East Java. Prabowo won Gresik in 2014, but lost heavily in 2019. You see this across East and Central Java, in predominately Javanese districts which Jokowi had lost or won with small margins in 2014, you see big shifts sometimes as much as 15-25 percentage points favoring him. The biggest difference between Sudirman Said's 2018 Campaign and Prabowo-Sandi Campaign was FPI did not have significant involvement in the Said's campaign.
Most Javanese are OK with FPI, as long as they stay away from Central Java and East Java, and don't take control of Islam nationally. The animosity toward FPI is attributed in part, because most of its top leadership are Arab Indonesians. No senior national figure talked openly about their ethnicity, until Hendropriyono open his big mouth. The thought of Rizieq Shibab, an Arab-Betawi half-breed, even getting near the Ministry of Religion, would cause many Javanese to throw up.
Why did Prabowo-Sandi allow FPI to get involved in the East-Central Java campaign?. My theory is it could be used to maintain support of FPI and other conservative groups in other regions. Prabowo and Gerindra don't have a strong grassroots, and with his supporting parties not willing to fully commit manpower to support him in East and Central Java, he was dependent on groups like the FPI.
JAVA WAR 1825-30
The Javanese, like many Asian societies, view history as cyclical and repeating, not linear as Westerners or Arabs do. You see a similar themes emerge during the 2019 Election and the Java War of 1825-30. The Java War of 1825-30 is important in explaining politics in the Javanese Homeland, because its crucible of modern Javanese "nationalism" and politics. It was the first time all segment of Javanese united in fighting a common enemy. Secondly, the Java War took place during the period (1755-1860s) that saw a unification of Javanese culture under the court culture of Surakarta-Yogyakarta, Thirdly, the laid the template for successful mobilization of the Javanese to this day.
When Indonesians study pre-Independence history, wars against the Dutch and other colonist are seen as a stepping stone to the Indonesian War of Independence. But the reality is more people died in absolute terms during the Java War than Indonesia's War of Independence from 1945-1949. One must remember the population of Central and East Java in 1825 was only 1/8 of the population of Java in 1945. During the Java War, the Dutch lost 20,000 men, more than double their deaths in the Indonesian struggle of independence. The Java War proved so costly for the Dutch, they were thinking of abandoning colonial possessions on the north coast of Central and East Java.
For our purposes, the Java War is important because it illustrates two important aspects of Javanese society that continue to this day. Javanese society is conservative, and Diponegoro was first and foremost a conservative. The cause of the Java War was the gradual break down of the arrangement between the Javanese and the Dutch from the Treaty of Giyanti in 1755 to the dissolution of the Dutch East Indies company in 1799. As Carey's points out
Later, in his peace proposals which he transmitted to the Dutch through one of his army commanders, he expressed the hope that the Dutch would remain as settlers and traders in Java provided that they agreed to live on the north coast (pasisir). This was possibly in keeping with the traditional Javanese kraton view, which held that the Dutch were legitimate co-rulers in Java as the descendants of the Sundanese kingdom of Pajajaran. There was much then in Diponegoro’s war aims which hankered for a revival of the old political system which had been in force before Daendels’s period of administration.
The reason for the break down in the arrangement ultimately lay with the invasion and occupation of the Netherlands by Napoleon from 1795 -1813.
Secondly, in Javanese society, there are three pillars - the secular elites (traditionally the Javanese nobility). santri and their communities and the masses. There was a great deal of suspicion between the Javanese nobility and the santri. All three pillars were negatively impacted by the break down of the arrangement.
The years immediately preceding the Java War thus prepared the way for an extensive social rebellion against Dutch rule and against the ruling élite in the Yogyakarta kraton which affected all classes of Javanese society. There only remained the need to await the emergence of a leader with sufficient prestige to weld together the disparate elements into an effective alliance. Dipanagara was such a leader for he had extensive contacts with the Javanese nobility, the religious communities, and the countryside.
While some Muslims in Indonesia see the Java War, as religiously motivated, it was inspired by Javanese conservatism.
Here Diponegoro himself gave a lead by sparing Chinese and European prisoners, and by going so far as to consider making a captured Dutch official one of his principal administrators. Later, in his peace proposals which he transmitted to the Dutch through one of his army commanders, he expressed the hope that the Dutch would remain as settlers and traders in Java provided that they agreed to live on the north coast (pasisir). This was possibly in keeping with the traditional Javanese kraton view, which held that the Dutch were legitimate co-rulers in Java as the descendants of the Sundanese kingdom of Pajajaran. There was much then in Diponegoro war aims which hankered for a revival of the old political system which had been in force before Daendels’s period of administration.

TWO PILLARS OF JAVANESE SOCIETY

Like the Java War, the 2019 Election in Central Java, DIY and East Java could be seen conservative Javanese reaction against groups under Prabowo-Sandi's campaign like Gerindra, FPI and PKS. In this section I will talk about the first 2 pillars, secular pillar (Yogyakarta Sultanate and the PDI-P) and religious pillar (NU). In separate sections I will talk about ordinary Javanese.
SECULAR PILLAR
Hamengkubuwono X publicly remained neutral. However, it was clear from photos during Jokowi and Prabowo visits to the Kraton, the Kraton backed Jokowi. Here is a photo of Jokowi with the Sultan, the Queen consort and all the princesses, and here is a photo with Prabowo and the Sultan. Here is a photo of Jokowi and Jusuf Kalla with the Sultan during 2014 campaign, and Prabowo with the Sultan in 2014. As you see the photos of Jokowi with the Sultan in 2014, and Prabowo with the Sultan in 2014 and 2019 are the essentially the same, the Sultan met with them in side rooms and without the princesses. In 2014, the Kraton was neutral. What changed during the five years? First, the Sultan declared his eldest daughter heir apparent in 2015, going against palace norms and tradition. Secondly, Prabowo aligned himself too closely with PKS and more importantly with FPI, and these groups are more disposed to supporting the Sultan's brothers position that females can't lead the Sultanate. I think Prabowo realized this, and brought along Titiek Suharto and Rachmawati Soekarnoputri, to soften his image.
The PDI-P felt threatened by Gerindra, because Gerindra setup a lot of Posko (campaign offices) in both Central Java and Yogyakarta. They even establish their HQ in Solo, Jokowi's home town. This is what Ketua DPC PDIP Kota Semarang PDIP Hendrar Prihadi said, on Dec 12, 2018
Menurut Hendrar, rencana kubu Prabowo-Sandi yang akan membangun posko kemenangan sampai ke tingkat RT/RW, merupakan khayalan tinggi karena pembuatan posko secara masif membutuhkan biaya yang tidak sedikit."Sudah tahu belum di Jawa Tengah ada berapa desa, berapa RT-RW. Bangun posko tidak murah, biayanya besar," katanya.
Ketika posko Prabowo-Sandi berdiri, kata Hendrar, seketika kader PDIP semakin bersemangat untuk memenangkan pasangan Jokowi-Maruf. Rencana pembangunan posko pemenangan itu dikatakan cawapres nomor urut dua Sandiaga Uno untuk mengoyak mitos Jateng kandang banteng.
Without full support from BPN coalition partners, particularly PAN, PPP and Demokrat, Prabowo and Sandi were just firing blanks.
RELIGIOUS PILLAR
With NU, whether in East or Central Java, they felt threatened by Prabowo-Sandi's association with groups like FPI, and their willingness to lift the ban on HTI. During the campaign, NU took a hardline message
And their message is not a conciliatory one; rather, it’s message of “us or them”. NU and PKB leadership now propagate a kind of militant pluralism, which paints any Islamist group affiliated with Prabowo as a threat to the nation. NU’s leaders, from the national level down to local ulama on Java, Madura and, in West Nusa Tenggara, the NU and Nahdatul Wathan-affiliated Tuan Guru, have been enlisted to convince the electorate not just that Jokowi will support these traditionalist Islamic institutions and their community of santri, but also that a Prabowo victory would open the door to an Islamic caliphate, and the rise of an emboldened Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia (HTI).
The assumption here is the NU can dictate to its branches and masses what to do, but my view it was the ordinary Javanese and NU grassroots members in Central and East Java that pushed NU central leadership to act. Despite what the article says, I don't think any of the senior leadership in NU expected the non-Javanese NU affiliated branches would have much luck in getting their members to back Jokowi.
Non Javanese NU branches and leaders are more favorably disposed to FPI than Javanese NU branches. NU in Madura, unlike their counterparts on Java, had good relations with FPI. Mar'uf Amin stated the position of NU with regards to FPI
Mereka (FPI) juga memecahkan diri atau keluar dari kelompok NU karena menganggap NU kurang keras. Padahal bukan kurang keras, tapi NU bijak, santun untuk berjuan. Sekarang ini justru bukan antisipasi lagi, sudah ada di Indonesia, Wahabinya ada, bahkan HTI-nya, bahkan juga ada gerakan yang anak-anak kita dulunya tidak puas dengan gerakan yang kurang ekstrem dari NU, kelompok FPI,
Both NU and FPI are opposed to Wahhabi influence in Indonesia.
However, this contrast with others within NU who want FPI disbanded most notably the NU grassports organization like Banser. After FPI clash with residents in Purwakarta, West Java in 2015, NU chairman, Said Aqil Siradj called for the FPI to be disbanded. However, since the 2017 Jakarta election, FPI has penetrated deeper into East and Central Java, as well emerged from a street vigilante group to a center of Islamic and national politics challenge NU. PDI-P and NU have been aligned in past elections like Megawati - Hasyim Muzadi in 2004, and they still lost heavily to SBY in East Java, because there was no common threat to unite most of the NU branches in East and Central Java. But FPI presence became more visible in small town Java, ordinary Javanese started to worry which motivated many NU leaders to take action. The top video in youtube for FPI, which had a post in /Indonesia was a video with FPI members confronting police about them wanting to raid a supermarket in Sragen, Central Java to check if employees were wearing Christmas themed clothing. This video got 9.2 Million views, and was uploaded on Dec 21, 2016. Sragan is in right next to East Java, and is the geographic center of Central-East Java. IF you want to find a typical Javanese town, Sragen would be it. This attempted raid was followed by attempts by FPI to setup a branch in Semarang in April, 2017, which was rejected by the community.
My view is NU only had two choices -- to remain neutral or back Jokowi. Backing Prabowo was a non starter, given Jokowi popularity among his fellow Javanese and hostility of grassroots NU members in Central and East Java toward FPI. If it remained neutral, the Javanese in the home provinces would most likely vote for Jokowi anyways, and you would ended up with nothing. By negotiating with Jokowi regarding NU support, NU gots something in return. Ma'ruf was important to cover Jokowi against attacks, but NU advanced Ma'ruf as Vice President was to unify NU and get conservatives in NU to go along with what turned out to a full frontal assault against Prabowo and his hardline supporters.
After Diponegoro capture, Javanese society didn't find another leader that could unite them. Starting in the 20th century it became increasingly more difficult as Javanese society became divided on political and religious lines. These divisions culminated in the thr 1965 Anti-Communist purges. In 2019, the secular and religious pillar were united behind Jokowi, as Ganjar Pranowo said,
Kayaknya justru poskonya ditaruh di sana jadi semua semangat. Jadi semua semangat, semua bekerja dan alhamdulillah di Jawa Tengah kondusif ya bekerjanya juga cukup serius. Kelompok masyarakat, kelompok ulama, kebetulan mereka solid untuk mendukung Jokowi-Ma'ruf, maka kolaborasi kekuatan besar itu membikin suara lompatan cukup tinggi,"
PDi-P draws its support from areas which were once heavily PKI, Time has a way of healing the rifts between these people and NU. In addition, starting with Gus Dur, there has been attempt by some within NU to atone for NU involvement in 1965.
Why Prabowo-Sandi Lost: Caught by the Javanese Tsunami Part 2 (Section 8-11)
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2019.06.06 08:52 annadpk Why Prabowo-Sandi Lost: Caught by the Javanese Tsunami Part I

I really haven't been following this election unlike the 2014 and 2017 Jakarta Governor's election, but I will like to present my analysis why Prabowo legitimately thought he could win, the new challenges that faced Prabowo in 2019 and why ultimately lost. The analysis will be divided into ten sections
  1. Why Prabowo Thought He Could Win
  2. New Challenges Faced by Prabowo in 2019
  3. Prabowo's Assets In 2019 Campaign: Epitome of Tactics over Strategy
  4. Prabowo's Strategy and How Did Prabowo Do?
  5. Caught by the Javanese Tsunami
  6. Protecting the Javanese Homeland
  7. Two Pillars of Javanese Society
  8. Playing with Stereotypes
  9. Culture Clash: Indonesian Campaign vs Javanese Campaign
  10. Rising Javanese Identity
  11. Jokowi: Javanese Muse and Storyteller
  12. Conclusion
This is going to be very long, because it covers material not many people are familiar with. Jokowi is Javanese and Jokowi won because of the surge of support in the Javanese home provinces (Tanah Jawa) of Central Java, East Java and Yogyakarta. Even though Jokowi is an Indonesian President, many Indonesians understand him the way a foreigner would, because they look at him as Indonesians, not as Javanese. We need to look at election in the Javanese home provinces from a Javanese perspective to really understand what went on.
Warning: This post is 11,000 words long or 20 single space pages. . I decided to do this post, because its been a long time since I written any post like this for /Indonesia. I wanted to finish this before the official election results were announced, but it took longer than expected, because I kept revising the last 5-6 sections. Since the post is over the reddot maximum post length, I broke it down into two parts.
Why Prabowo-Sandi Lost: Caught by the Javanese Tsunami Part 1 (Sections 1-7)
Why Prabowo-Sandi Lost: Caught by the Javanese Tsunami Part 2 (Section 8-12)

WHY PRABOWO THOUGHT HE COULD WIN

Unlike many people and the polls, I thought Prabowo had a good chance of winning. Here are some of the reasons.
The gubernatorial elections of 2017-2018, particularly Sudirman Said's results in Central Java, While Sudirman Said lost by 17%, he managed to get 42% of the vote in a PDI-P strong hold against a longstanding and popular PDP-P party member, Ganjar Pranowo. Most polls expected him to get only 20% of the vote. This race was more important than the Jakarta election for Gerindra and Prabowo, because it showed them that it was possible to do well in Central Java. Said run on a modest budget, imagine a well funded effort would do in a Presidential election. The wins in Jakarta and North Sumatra, and close finish for the so-so PKS candidate in West Java gave room for optimism.
Jusuf Kalla wasn't going to be Jokowi's running mate in 2019. In 2009, Jusuf kalla won 12% or 15 Million votes. Losing Kalla most likely cost Jokowi a couple of millions votes. Jusuf Kalla is popular in Eastern Indonesia and Aceh, and not just in Sulawesi or among the Bugis, but among many non-Bugis as well. Its why Jokowi spent a lot money on infrastructure in Sulawesi to compensate for losing Kalla in 2019.
Jokowi's so-so economic performance. During the 2014 election, Jokowi had promises 7% growth, and he only managed to deliver 5%. Also some of Jokowi's economic policies weren't well thought out. Many of the infrastructure projects, like trans Papua, had a very low rate of return, which is understandable since you are building roads in the middle of nowhere.
Declining enthusiasm among Jokowi's base as a result of failure to protect Ahok and putting on Ma'ruf Amin on the ticket. If you were to measure Siandiaga Uno and Ma'ruf Amin popularity individually, Uno does a lot better. All these factors could influence voter turnout.
Ma'ruf Amin was a compromise candidate meant to appease Jokowi's backers, both the political parties and NU. Ma'ruf selection was a political calculation to maintain NU support and unity, not electoral one. If Jokowi could get NU support and pick a better VP candidate, he would have ended doing better. Mahfud MD polled better among Muslim voters than Ma'ruf. While the press thought appointment Ma'ruf would dissuade progressive and non-Muslim from voting for Jokowi, Ma'ruf. as a high ranking NU leader actually hurt Jokowi's support among non-NU Muslims more, particularly in Sumatra.

NEW CHALLENGES FACED BY PRABOWO IN 2019

Most military officers today, including Prabowo, haven;t fought peer competitors. While going against OPM or Fretlin is dangerous, its not like trying to invade Malaysia. Prabowo-Sandi campaigning in Central and East Java, from a military standpoint is like the Indonesian army invading and penetrating deep into Malaysia.
Jokowi had the benefit of Incumbency, this is particularly important for Jokowi, who's ties to PDI-P political machinery isn't strong. For those who didn't follow the 2014 election, Jokowi's 2014 campaign was poorly organized and scheduled. Jokowi didn't have access to party infrastructure and transportation as described in this New Mandala article. The PDI-P only really supported Jokowi during the last three weeks of the campaign, when Prabowo had cut Jokowi's lead to 2-3%.
The PDI-P, PKB and other coalition parties were out in force in support of Jokowi, because first the legislative and Presidential elections were held on the same day. Secondly, this was Jokowi's last term, winning this term, means that people like Puan Maharani have a chance to compete in 2024. A Prabowo-Sandi victory could mean a possible 10-15 year wait. The PDI-P and its coalition partners were much more engaged than they were in 2014.
Jokowi and coalition partners control the governorship of all the main provinces on Java - West, Central and East Java. Even in West Java, Jokowi benefited from Ridwan Kamal being the governor. His control of the governorship prevented Jokowi from losing support as he did in other provinces that Prabowo had won in 2014 like West Sumatra and NTB.

PRABOWO'S ASSETS IN THE 2019 CAMPAIGN: EPITOME OF TACTICS OVER STRATEGY

Since Prabowo started running for the President in 2004, his endeavors have often been dominated by decisions made at the last moment and short term opportunism. Only in the Presidential Election of 2014 show a build up to the election. There are three patterns one can see from Prabowo's political career over the last decade.
Going into 2019, Prabowo was left with Gerindra, an organization with no credible senior management and limited grass roots organization. The lack of a grassroots organization, is the reason why Gerindra aligns itself with the likes of PKS and FPI. However, even the PKS and other parties at the local level in Prabowo's coalition correctly sensed something was different about this election in Central and East Java, withheld support, and focused on their own campaigns. That is why I suspect Prabowo-Sandi justification in building the Postko in Central and East Java, getting the FPI and other conservative groups involved.
Role of Sandi
Despite what people believe, I don't think he was an asset. Sandi was a compromise candidate, and his biggest advantage was he brought money. But other than that he didn't really bring additional voters, no grass roots organization and no government experience. To be honest, after this campaign Sandi is toast politically. He is a political light weight, always trying to minimize damage, but at the end he comes off looking weak. When he was called sandiwara, his mother jump to his defense. As we have the riots, there are people who are willing to kill to obtain power in Indonesia, the last thing the country need is a Mommy's boy.
As for his economic acumen, you can hire a finance minister. Every cabinet in Indonesia rotates through the same dozen economists, The reality is Sandi's economic message didn't catch on with voters in Central and East Java. because the economies of Java and the outer island are fundamentally different. Added add on culture and class, to most Javanese voters, Sandi was speaking Martian.

PRABOWO STRATEGY AND HOW DID PRABOWO DO?

Prabowo had lost the 2014 Election by 8.5 Million votes or 6.3%, or if he could swing 3.15% of the vote his way he would win. He had three factors working to his advantage in 2019. The first was Kalla wasn't in the race. The second, was the negative impact of low resource prices, this impacted the economies of resource rich provinces in Sumatra and Kalimantan, impacting non-Muslims and Muslims alike. In Kalimantan, district with large Chinese and Christian majority population showed a drop in support for Jokowi compared to 2014. The third factor were new voters, who are more educated and conservative who would be voting for the first time. The factor working against Prabowo was the loss of the non-Muslim vote in non-resource provinces, particularly the minority majority provinces like NTT, Bali, North Sulawesi and Maluku.
Whatever he had gained in the outer islands, it wouldn't be enough to make up the difference. So the provinces on Java - West, East and Central Java would be critical. All Prabowo had to do was maintain his support in Javanese homeland (East, Central and Yogyakarta) and gain 1% from Jokowi in West Java, Bantan and his margins outside Java will allow him to eke out a small victory. Not altogether a unrealistic strategy, given Sudirman Said's performance in the governor's election in 2017.
For the purposes talking about the election results I am going to divide Indonesian provinces into six groups - Stable, Kalla, Resource, Javanese Homeland, non-Muslim Majority , and Outliers. The elections results can be categorized in five groups. The first are provinces that are stable. meaning their result changed by less than 5% points relative to 2014. These provinces economies also didn't show a sharp drop in per capita GDP growth like the provinces in the Resource group compare to the SBY era. The second group, are effects that benefit Prabowo, the Kalla and the resource effect The third group is the non-Muslim majority provinces. The fourth group are the Javanese homeland provinces (which also include Lampung given the majority Javanese population and very long settlement history). The last group are outliers, which include Bangka-Belitung, West Sumatra and Gorontalo. Bangka-Belitung even though its predominantly non-Javanese Muslim region, it has a long history of supporting PDI-P candidates. Megawati did better here in 2009 than she did in Central Java. Its resource economy was severely impacted by lower commodity prices, Prabowo only got 36.3% vs 32.73% in 2014. West Sumatra despite a generally healthy economy, with per capita GDP growing above 4%, Jokowi's support dropped by 10.14% points to only 12.89%. This had to do with putting Maruf Amin, an NU leader on the ticket. The last outlier, was Gorontalo, which Prabowo's support dropped from 63% to 48% even though growth in per capita GDP went from 5.89% per year to 4.87%. I still haven't figure out why Prabowo lost Gorontalo.
The first column shows the 2019 Elections Results with the Prabowo's share of the vote in the Javanese Home Provinces the same as in 2014. The second column shows the 2019 Elections Results with the Prabowo's share of the vote in the Javanese Home Province adjusted so Prabowo=Sandi's results in Central Java mirror those of Said's 2018 results. The third column contains the actual results

Provinces % of Votes in Javanese Provinces like 2014 % of Votes in Javanese Provinces like Said 2018 Actual; 2019 Results
STABLE: North Sumatra, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Banten, NTB, Central Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, North Maluku, Papua, West Papua, North Kalimantan, Overseas 29,038,542 (2014: 54,29% 2019: 54.52% +124,998 votes) 29,038,542 29,038,542
KALLA: Aceh, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi 5,868,052 (2014: 38% 2019 66.10% +2,494,919 votes) 5,868,052 5,868,052
RESOURCE: Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, Bengkulu, Riau Island, West Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, West Sulawesi 10,756,042 (2014: 45.73% 2019: 54.16% +1,673,573 votes) 10,756,042 10,756,042
jAVANESE: Lampung, Central Java, East Java, Yogyakarta 21,878,185 23,580,062 15,568,118 (2014: 41.23% 2019: 29.81% -5,968,233 votes)
NON-MUSLIM MAJORITY: Bali, NTT, North Sulawesi and Maluku 1,236,272 (2014: 36.42% 2019: 16.21% -1,540,985 votes) 1,236,272 1,236,272
OUTLIERS Bangka Belitung, West Sumatra, Gorontalo 3,080,198 (2014: 66.97% 2019: 70.94% +181,330 votes) 3,080,198 3,080,198
TOTAL 71,857,291 (49.17%) 73,559,168 (50.30) 65.651.967 (44.85%)
If you factor our the change in results in the Javanese Homeland the election results were a lot closer than many realize. There are fors things one can take away from the election.
Had Prabowo's vote share in the Javanese home provinces remained the same as in 2014, he would gotten a very close result and would have bogged down the Constitutional Court and possibly lead to much more serious political unrest. Had he managed repeat what Said did in Central Java in 2018, he would have won with a thin margin.
Note: Here is the spreadsheet with breakdown province by province. The data for 2014, and 2019. For growth in per capita GDP was taken here. The census data on ethnicity was from this book by BPS. The data for 2019 is preliminary, abd based on real counts that are 40% complete.

CAUGHT BY THE JAVANESE TSUNAMI

Here is a table of showing the 4 provinces where the Javanese make a majority of the population, 74% of the Javanese population lives in these 4 provinces. I use the term Javanese Tsunami to draw parallels to the Malay Tsunamiin Malaysian politics.
Province Javanese as % Total Jokowi 2014 Jokowi 2019 Change
East Java 80.0% 53% 66% 13%
Central Java 97.5% 67% 77% 10%
DI Yogyakarta 95.5% 56% 69% 13%
Lampung 63.5% 53% 60% 7%
For East Java I estimate about 59% of the Javanese population voted for Jokowi in 2014, and in 2019 about 73%. Madurese make up 17.5% of East Java's population. On Madura Island where 60% of Madurese in East Java live, Prabowo got 73% of the vote. In East Java, many districts in the North have a mixed Javanese/Madurese population, looking at the preliminary data, outside the 4 districts on Madura and 1-2 districts that have a majority Madurese population, the only district that showed no shift toward Jokowi is SBY home district of Pacitan.
In Central Java, it not only caught Prabowo-Sandi by surprise, but the provincial PDI-P organization as well. Ganjar Purnomo, the Governor of Central Java, was targeting 70% of the vote in Central Java. This was reflected down to the kabupaten level, in Sragen, PDI-P officials were targeting 74%, but got 80% according to the quick count. This was a safe assumption given that Ganjar only got 58% against Said, and Jokowi was facing a much better funded campaign in 2019 than Ganjar did in 2018. I think the PDI-P assumed Jokowi path to victory would involve getting more votes among non-Javanese Muslims than he did.
There is assumption is that religious minorities and Javanese voted for similar reasons, I don't think this is valid given that most Javanese voted along similar lines as other Muslims in the Jakarta election.
NU Madurese members still voted for Prabowo like they did in 2014, while Javanese voters in Central Java, East Java and Yogyakarta showed a large swing to Jokowi, particularly in areas where Jokowi lost or won by narrow margins. In Galur and Kota Gede Kecamatan in Yogyakarta, two Muhammadiyah areas, Prabowo got 55% in 2014, in 2019 he only managed 41 and 45% respectively in 2019. Muhammadiyah didn't endorse the two sides, but most Javanese members vote for Jokowi, most likely because they couldn't stand Rizieq Shibab with his self-appointed title "Imam Besar". In the three districts in Yogyakarta, Kulon Prago, Bantul and Sleman, Prabowo got 48%, 46% and 46% of the vote in 2014, in 2019 it dropped to 32%,32% and 33%. In contrast, Kota Yogyakarta which Prabowo got 40% of the vote, it only dropped to 34%. You see something similar in predominately Javanese districts in East Java, Prabowo won Gresik, East Java with 53% in 2014, he lost with 33% in 2019.
Jokowi's got about 74% of the Javanese vote in Javanese home provinces, and most likely above 70% of the Javanese vote in Javanese dominant districts in West Java like Indramayu and Subang. SBY in 2009 got about 57% of the Javanese vote in 2009. Even under the New Order, Golkar never got more than 70% of the vote in Central / East Java.
Given that there was large shifts in how Javanese voted from 2014 and 2019, one should ask "Why Did Javanese shift heavily to Jokowi in 2019?"

PROTECTING THE JAVANESE HOMELAND

The first reason why the Javanese shifted heavily to Jokowi in 2019 was important pillars of Javanese society felt threatened by a common threat (PKS, Gerindra and FPI). The mood in the Javanese homeland was of righteous indignation (atau kemarahan benar in Indonesian), which Jokowi and others on his side were able to channel.
THREATS FROM WEST JAVA
The Javanese think of power as a concentric circle, with Central-East Java at the center, and everything radiating outward. Serious threats have always come from either the North (Mongols and Japan) or from the West (Dutch). This continued after independence, from 1949-1960, the Darul Islam movement was centered in West Java, In 1998, riots moved from Medan to Jakarta than to West Java than to Central Java before petering out in Surabaya. During May Riots, Wiranto called troops from KODAM Diponegoro from Central Java to secure Jakarta, and that is why the riots lasted 48 hours. He couldn't trust Kostrad or KODAM Siliwangi, Today, you see the same "threats" from West Java in the form of Gerindra-PKS-FPI alliance in the 2019 Presidential Election. To the Javanese living in the Javanese home provinces, Jakarta isn't the center. but an outlying, unstable and problematic "territory".
The reason for this is since the fall of the Kingdom of Sunda in 1500s, there has been a power and cultural vacuum in West Java. The subsequent Muslim kingdoms in West Java, whether the Cirebon or Banten Sultanates, never filled the void left by the Kingdom of Sunda for the Sundanese. The Sundanese are a people in crisis. They belonged to the Dharmic world like the Javanese-Balinese, but since the fall of the Kingdom of Sunda, they have been wondering adrift,
How would your average Javanese feel when Prabowo or Sandi enters their town being escorted by FPI members? To many its like an invading army coming from the West, lead by a traitor, Prabowo. This is ironic, given that elite betrayal of the ordinary people is a common theme in Prabowo's political campaigns. Here is a video of scuffle between residents and FPI, who were guarding Prabowo in Gresik, East Java. Prabowo won Gresik in 2014, but lost heavily in 2019. You see this across East and Central Java, in predominately Javanese districts which Jokowi had lost or won with small margins in 2014, you see big shifts sometimes as much as 15-25 percentage points favoring him. The biggest difference between Sudirman Said's 2018 Campaign and Prabowo-Sandi Campaign was FPI did not have significant involvement in the Said's campaign.
Most Javanese are OK with FPI, as long as they stay away from Central Java and East Java, and don't take control of Islam nationally. The animosity toward FPI is attributed in part, because most of its top leadership are Arab Indonesians. No senior national figure talked openly about their ethnicity, until Hendropriyono open his big mouth. The thought of Rizieq Shibab, an Arab-Betawi half-breed, even getting near the Ministry of Religion, would cause many Javanese to throw up.
Why did Prabowo-Sandi allow FPI to get involved in the East-Central Java campaign?. My theory is it could be used to maintain support of FPI and other conservative groups in other regions. Prabowo and Gerindra don't have a strong grassroots, and with his supporting parties not willing to fully commit manpower to support him in East and Central Java, he was dependent on groups like the FPI.
JAVA WAR 1825-30
The Javanese, like many Asian societies, view history as cyclical and repeating, not linear as Westerners or Arabs do. You see a similar themes emerge during the 2019 Election and the Java War of 1825-30. The Java War of 1825-30 is important in explaining politics in the Javanese Homeland, because its crucible of modern Javanese "nationalism" and politics. It was the first time all segment of Javanese united in fighting a common enemy. Secondly, the Java War took place during the period (1755-1860s) that saw a unification of Javanese culture under the court culture of Surakarta-Yogyakarta, Thirdly, the laid the template for successful mobilization of the Javanese to this day.
When Indonesians study pre-Independence history, wars against the Dutch and other colonist are seen as a stepping stone to the Indonesian War of Independence. But the reality is more people died in absolute terms during the Java War than Indonesia's War of Independence from 1945-1949. One must remember the population of Central and East Java in 1825 was only 1/8 of the population of Java in 1945. During the Java War, the Dutch lost 20,000 men, more than double their deaths in the Indonesian struggle of independence. The Java War proved so costly for the Dutch, they were thinking of abandoning colonial possessions on the north coast of Central and East Java.
For our purposes, the Java War is important because it illustrates two important aspects of Javanese society that continue to this day. Javanese society is conservative, and Diponegoro was first and foremost a conservative. The cause of the Java War was the gradual break down of the arrangement between the Javanese and the Dutch from the Treaty of Giyanti in 1755 to the dissolution of the Dutch East Indies company in 1799. As Carey's points out
Later, in his peace proposals which he transmitted to the Dutch through one of his army commanders, he expressed the hope that the Dutch would remain as settlers and traders in Java provided that they agreed to live on the north coast (pasisir). This was possibly in keeping with the traditional Javanese kraton view, which held that the Dutch were legitimate co-rulers in Java as the descendants of the Sundanese kingdom of Pajajaran. There was much then in Diponegoro’s war aims which hankered for a revival of the old political system which had been in force before Daendels’s period of administration.
The reason for the break down in the arrangement ultimately lay with the invasion and occupation of the Netherlands by Napoleon from 1795 -1813.
Secondly, in Javanese society, there are three pillars - the secular elites (traditionally the Javanese nobility). santri and their communities and the masses. There was a great deal of suspicion between the Javanese nobility and the santri. All three pillars were negatively impacted by the break down of the arrangement.
The years immediately preceding the Java War thus prepared the way for an extensive social rebellion against Dutch rule and against the ruling élite in the Yogyakarta kraton which affected all classes of Javanese society. There only remained the need to await the emergence of a leader with sufficient prestige to weld together the disparate elements into an effective alliance. Dipanagara was such a leader for he had extensive contacts with the Javanese nobility, the religious communities, and the countryside.
While some Muslims in Indonesia see the Java War, as religiously motivated, it was inspired by Javanese conservatism.
Here Diponegoro himself gave a lead by sparing Chinese and European prisoners, and by going so far as to consider making a captured Dutch official one of his principal administrators. Later, in his peace proposals which he transmitted to the Dutch through one of his army commanders, he expressed the hope that the Dutch would remain as settlers and traders in Java provided that they agreed to live on the north coast (pasisir). This was possibly in keeping with the traditional Javanese kraton view, which held that the Dutch were legitimate co-rulers in Java as the descendants of the Sundanese kingdom of Pajajaran. There was much then in Diponegoro war aims which hankered for a revival of the old political system which had been in force before Daendels’s period of administration.

TWO PILLARS OF JAVANESE SOCIETY

Like the Java War, the 2019 Election in Central Java, DIY and East Java could be seen conservative Javanese reaction against groups under Prabowo-Sandi's campaign like Gerindra, FPI and PKS. In this section I will talk about the first 2 pillars, secular pillar (Yogyakarta Sultanate and the PDI-P) and religious pillar (NU). In separate sections I will talk about ordinary Javanese.
SECULAR PILLAR
Hamengkubuwono X publicly remained neutral. However, it was clear from photos during Jokowi and Prabowo visits to the Kraton, the Kraton backed Jokowi. Here is a photo of Jokowi with the Sultan, the Queen consort and all the princesses, and here is a photo with Prabowo and the Sultan. Here is a photo of Jokowi and Jusuf Kalla with the Sultan during 2014 campaign, and Prabowo with the Sultan in 2014. As you see the photos of Jokowi with the Sultan in 2014, and Prabowo with the Sultan in 2014 and 2019 are the essentially the same, the Sultan met with them in side rooms and without the princesses. In 2014, the Kraton was neutral. What changed during the five years? First, the Sultan declared his eldest daughter heir apparent in 2015, going against palace norms and tradition. Secondly, Prabowo aligned himself too closely with PKS and more importantly with FPI, and these groups are more disposed to supporting the Sultan's brothers position that females can't lead the Sultanate. I think Prabowo realized this, and brought along Titiek Suharto and Rachmawati Soekarnoputri, to soften his image.
The PDI-P felt threatened by Gerindra, because Gerindra setup a lot of Posko (campaign offices) in both Central Java and Yogyakarta. They even establish their HQ in Solo, Jokowi's home town. This is what Ketua DPC PDIP Kota Semarang PDIP Hendrar Prihadi said, on Dec 12, 2018
Menurut Hendrar, rencana kubu Prabowo-Sandi yang akan membangun posko kemenangan sampai ke tingkat RT/RW, merupakan khayalan tinggi karena pembuatan posko secara masif membutuhkan biaya yang tidak sedikit."Sudah tahu belum di Jawa Tengah ada berapa desa, berapa RT-RW. Bangun posko tidak murah, biayanya besar," katanya.
Ketika posko Prabowo-Sandi berdiri, kata Hendrar, seketika kader PDIP semakin bersemangat untuk memenangkan pasangan Jokowi-Maruf. Rencana pembangunan posko pemenangan itu dikatakan cawapres nomor urut dua Sandiaga Uno untuk mengoyak mitos Jateng kandang banteng.
Without full support from BPN coalition partners, particularly PAN, PPP and Demokrat, Prabowo and Sandi were just firing blanks.
RELIGIOUS PILLAR
With NU, whether in East or Central Java, they felt threatened by Prabowo-Sandi's association with groups like FPI, and their willingness to lift the ban on HTI. During the campaign, NU took a hardline message
And their message is not a conciliatory one; rather, it’s message of “us or them”. NU and PKB leadership now propagate a kind of militant pluralism, which paints any Islamist group affiliated with Prabowo as a threat to the nation. NU’s leaders, from the national level down to local ulama on Java, Madura and, in West Nusa Tenggara, the NU and Nahdatul Wathan-affiliated Tuan Guru, have been enlisted to convince the electorate not just that Jokowi will support these traditionalist Islamic institutions and their community of santri, but also that a Prabowo victory would open the door to an Islamic caliphate, and the rise of an emboldened Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia (HTI).
The assumption here is the NU can dictate to its branches and masses what to do, but my view it was the ordinary Javanese and NU grassroots members in Central and East Java that pushed NU central leadership to act. Despite what the article says, I don't think any of the senior leadership in NU expected the non-Javanese NU affiliated branches would have much luck in getting their members to back Jokowi.
Non Javanese NU branches and leaders are more favorably disposed to FPI than Javanese NU branches. NU in Madura, unlike their counterparts on Java, had good relations with FPI. Mar'uf Amin stated the position of NU with regards to FPI
Mereka (FPI) juga memecahkan diri atau keluar dari kelompok NU karena menganggap NU kurang keras. Padahal bukan kurang keras, tapi NU bijak, santun untuk berjuan. Sekarang ini justru bukan antisipasi lagi, sudah ada di Indonesia, Wahabinya ada, bahkan HTI-nya, bahkan juga ada gerakan yang anak-anak kita dulunya tidak puas dengan gerakan yang kurang ekstrem dari NU, kelompok FPI,
Both NU and FPI are opposed to Wahhabi influence in Indonesia.
However, this contrast with others within NU who want FPI disbanded most notably the NU grassports organization like Banser. After FPI clash with residents in Purwakarta, West Java in 2015, NU chairman, Said Aqil Siradj called for the FPI to be disbanded. However, since the 2017 Jakarta election, FPI has penetrated deeper into East and Central Java, as well emerged from a street vigilante group to a center of Islamic and national politics challenge NU. PDI-P and NU have been aligned in past elections like Megawati - Hasyim Muzadi in 2004, and they still lost heavily to SBY in East Java, because there was no common threat to unite most of the NU branches in East and Central Java. But FPI presence became more visible in small town Java, ordinary Javanese started to worry which motivated many NU leaders to take action. The top video in youtube for FPI, which had a post in /Indonesia was a video with FPI members confronting police about them wanting to raid a supermarket in Sragen, Central Java to check if employees were wearing Christmas themed clothing. This video got 9.2 Million views, and was uploaded on Dec 21, 2016. Sragan is in right next to East Java, and is the geographic center of Central-East Java. IF you want to find a typical Javanese town, Sragen would be it. This attempted raid was followed by attempts by FPI to setup a branch in Semarang in April, 2017, which was rejected by the community.
My view is NU only had two choices -- to remain neutral or back Jokowi. Backing Prabowo was a non starter, given Jokowi popularity among his fellow Javanese and hostility of grassroots NU members in Central and East Java toward FPI. If it remained neutral, the Javanese in the home provinces would most likely vote for Jokowi anyways, and you would ended up with nothing. By negotiating with Jokowi regarding NU support, NU gots something in return. Ma'ruf was important to cover Jokowi against attacks, but NU advanced Ma'ruf as Vice President was to unify NU and get conservatives in NU to go along with what turned out to a full frontal assault against Prabowo and his hardline supporters.
After Diponegoro capture, Javanese society didn't find another leader that could unite them. Starting in the 20th century it became increasingly more difficult as Javanese society became divided on political and religious lines. These divisions culminated in the thr 1965 Anti-Communist purges. In 2019, the secular and religious pillar were united behind Jokowi, as Ganjar Pranowo said,
Kayaknya justru poskonya ditaruh di sana jadi semua semangat. Jadi semua semangat, semua bekerja dan alhamdulillah di Jawa Tengah kondusif ya bekerjanya juga cukup serius. Kelompok masyarakat, kelompok ulama, kebetulan mereka solid untuk mendukung Jokowi-Ma'ruf, maka kolaborasi kekuatan besar itu membikin suara lompatan cukup tinggi,"
PDi-P draws its support from areas which were once heavily PKI, Time has a way of healing the rifts between these people and NU. In addition, starting with Gus Dur, there has been attempt by some within NU to atone for NU involvement in 1965.

Why Prabowo-Sandi Lost: Caught by the Javanese Tsunami Part 2 (Section 8-12)
submitted by annadpk to u/annadpk [link] [comments]


2019.06.06 04:16 annadpk Why Prabowo-Sandi Lost: Caught by the Javanese Tsunami Part 1

I really haven't been following this election unlike the 2014 and 2017 Jakarta Governor's election, but I will like to present my analysis why Prabowo legitimately thought he could win, the new challenges that faced Prabowo in 2019 and why ultimately lost. The analysis will be divided into ten sections
  1. Why Prabowo Thought He Could Win
  2. New Challenges Faced by Prabowo in 2019
  3. Prabowo's Assets In 2019 Campaign: Epitome of Tactics over Strategy
  4. Prabowo's Strategy and How Did Prabowo Do?
  5. Caught by the Javanese Tsunami
  6. Protecting the Javanese Homeland
  7. Two Pillars of Javanese Society
  8. Playing with Stereotypes
  9. Culture Clash: Indonesian Campaign vs Javanese Campaign
  10. Rising Javanese Identity
  11. Jokowi: Javanese Muse and Storyteller
  12. Conclusion
This is going to be very long, because it covers material not many people are familiar with. Jokowi is Javanese and Jokowi won because of the surge of support in the Javanese home provinces (Tanah Jawa) of Central Java, East Java and Yogyakarta. Even though Jokowi is an Indonesian President, many Indonesians understand him the way a foreigner would, because they look at him as Indonesians, not as Javanese. We need to look at election in the Javanese home provinces from a Javanese perspective to really understand what went on.
Warning: This post is 13,000 words long or 25 single space pages. . I decided to do this post, because its been a long time since I written any post like this for /Indonesia. I am not assigned to any research institute, I just do this because it interest me, and because a lot of the coverage and analysis were superficial. I wanted to finish this before the official election results were announced, but it took longer than expected, because I kept revising the last 5-6 sections. Since the post is over the reddot maximum post length, I broke it down into three sections
Why Prabowo-Sandi Lost: Caught by the Javanese Tsunami Part 1
Why Prabowo-Sandi Lost: Caught by the Javanese Tsunami Part 2
Why Prabowo-Sandi Lost: Caught by the Javanese Tsunami Part 3

WHY PRABOWO THOUGHT HE COULD WIN

Unlike many people and the polls, I thought Prabowo had a good chance of winning. Here are some of the reasons.
The gubernatorial elections of 2017-2018, particularly Sudirman Said's results in Central Java, While Sudirman Said lost by 17%, he managed to get 42% of the vote in a PDI-P strong hold against a longstanding and popular PDP-P party member, Ganjar Pranowo. Most polls expected him to get only 20% of the vote. This race was more important than the Jakarta election for Gerindra and Prabowo, because it showed them that it was possible to do well in Central Java. Said run on a modest budget, imagine a well funded effort would do in a Presidential election. The wins in Jakarta and North Sumatra, and close finish for the so-so PKS candidate in West Java gave room for optimism.
Jusuf Kalla wasn't going to be Jokowi's running mate in 2019. In 2009, Jusuf kalla won 12% or 15 Million votes. Losing Kalla most likely cost Jokowi a couple of millions votes. Jusuf Kalla is popular in Eastern Indonesia and Aceh, and not just in Sulawesi or among the Bugis, but among many non-Bugis as well. Its why Jokowi spent a lot money on infrastructure in Sulawesi to compensate for losing Kala in 2019. Kalla's support in Sulawesi also took a hit in 2018, because of the Munafri Arifuddin scandal
Jokowi's so-so economic performance. During the 2014 election, Jokowi had promises 7%, and he only managed to deliver 5%. Also some of Jokowi's economic policies weren't well thought out. Many of the infrastructure projects, trans Papua, had a very low rate of return, which is understandable since you are building roads in the middle of nowhere.
Declining enthusiasm among Jokowi's base as a result of failure to protect Ahok and putting on Ma'ruf Amin on the ticket. If you were to measure Siandiaga Uno and Ma'ruf Amin popularity individually, Uno does a lot better. All these factors would influence voter turnout.
Ma'ruf Amin was a compromise candidate meant to appease Jokowi's backers, both the political parties and NU. Ma'ruf selection was a political calculation to maintain NU support and unity, not electoral one. If Jokowi could get NU support and pick a better VP candidate, he would have ended doing better. Mahfud MD polled better among Muslim voters than Ma'ruf. While the press thought that appointment Ma'ruf would dissuade progressive and non-Muslim from voting for Jokowi, Ma'ruf. as a high ranking NU member hurt Jokowi's support among non-NU Muslims, particularly in Sumatra.

NEW CHALLENGES FACED BY PRABOWO IN 2019

Most military officers today, including Prabowo, don't fight peer competitors. While going against OPM or Fretlin is dangerous, its not like trying to invade Malaysia. Prabowo-Sandi campaigning in Central and East Java, from a political standpoint is like the Indonesian army invading and penetrating deep into Malaysia.
Jokowi had the benefit of Incumbency, this is particularly important for Jokowi, who's ties to PDI-P political machinery isn't strong. For those who didn't follow the 2014 election, Jokowi's 2014 campaign was poorly organized and scheduled. Jokowi didn't have access to party infrastructure and transportation as described in this New Mandala article. The PDI-P only really supportws Jokowi during the last three weeks of the campaign, when Prabowo had cut Jokowi's lead to 2-3%.
The PDI-P, PKB and other coalition parties were out in force in support of Jokowi, because first the legislative and Presidential elections were held on the same day. Secondly, this was Jokowi's last term, winning this term, means that people like Puan Maharani have a chance to compete in 2024. A Prabowo-Sandi victory could mean a possible 10-15 year wait. The PDI-P and its coalition partners were much more engaged than they were in 2014.
Jokowi and coalition partners control the governorship of all the main provinces on Java - West, Central and East Java. Even in West Java, Jokowi benefited from Ridwan Kamal being the governor. His control of the governorship prevented Jokowi from losing support as he did in other provinces that Prabowo had won in 2014 like West Sumatra and NTB.
Unlike with Sudirman Said coalition in the 2018 Governor's election which consisted of Gerindra, PKS, PKB and PAN, Prabowo-Sandi coalition wasn't solid particularly Demokrat, PAN and PPP. They were more interested in the legislative elections than helping Prabowo win the Presidency.

PRABOWO'S ASSETS IN THE 2019 CAMPAIGN: EPITOME OF TACTICS OVER STRATEGY

Since Prabowo started running for the President in 2004, his endeavors have often been dominated by decisions made at the last moment and short term opportunism. Only in the Presidential Election of 2014 show a build up to the election. There are three patterns one can see from Prabowo's political career over the last decade.
Going into 2019, Prabowo was left with Gerindra, an organization with no credible senior management and limited grass roots organization. The lack of a grassroots organization, is the reason why Gerindra aligns itself with the likes of PKS and FPI. However, even the PKS and other parties at the local level in Prabowo's coalition correctly sensed something was different about this election in Central and East Java, withheld support, and focused on their own campaigns. That is why I suspect Prabowo-Sandi justification in building the Postko in Central and East Java, getting the FPI and other conservative groups involved.
Role of Sandi
Despite what people believe, I don't think he was an asset. Sandi was a compromise candidate, and his biggest advantage was he brought money. But other than that he didn't really bring additional voters, no grass roots organization and no government experience. To be honest, after this campaign Sandi is toast politically. He is a political light weight, always trying to minimize damage, but at the end he comes off looking weak. Even when he was called sandiwara, his mother jump to his defense.
As for his economic acumen, you can hire a finance minister, and that is what they are there for. Every cabinet in Indonesia rotates through the same dozen economist, The reality is Sandi's economic message didn't catch on with voters in Central and East Java. because the economies of Java and the outer island are fundamentally different. Added add on religion, culture and class, to most Javanese voters, Sandi was speaking Martian.

PRABOWO STRATEGY AND HOW DID PRABOWO DO?

Prabowo had lost the 2014 Election by 8.5 Million votes or 6.3%, or if he could swing 3.15% of the vote his way he would win. He had three factors working to his advantage in 2019. The first was Kalla wasn't in the race. The second, was the negative impact of low resource prices, this impacted the economies of resource rich provinces in Sumatra and Kalimantan, this impacted non-Muslims and Muslims alike. In Kalimantan, district with large Chinese and Christian majority population they showed a drop in support for Jokowi compared to 2014. The third factor were new voters, who are more educated and conservative who would be voting for the first time. The factor working against Prabowo was the loss of the non-Muslim vote in non-resource provinces, particularly the minority majority provinces like NTT, Bali, North Sulawesi and Maluku. Prabowo won about 30% of this vote in 2014, and most likely got 15% in 2019 based on surveys.
Whatever he had gained in the outer islands, it wouldn't be enough to make up the difference. So the provinces on Java - West, East and Central Java would be critical. All Prabowo had to do was maintain his support in Javanese homeland (East, Central and Yogyakarta) and gain 1% from Jokowi in West Java, Bantan and his margins outside Java will allow him to eke out a small victory. Not altogether a unrealistic strategy, given Sudirman Said's performance in the governor's election in 2017.
For the purposes talking about the election results I am going to divide Indonesian provinces into six groups - Stable, Kalla, Resource, Javanese Homeland, non-Muslim Majority , and Outliers. The elections results can be categorized in five groups. The first are provinces that are stable. meaning their result changed by less than 5% points relative to 2014. These provinces economies also didn't show a sharp drop in per capita GDP growth like the provinces in the Resource group compare to the SBY era. The second group, are effects that benefit Prabowo, the Kalla and the resource effect The third group is the non-Muslim majority provinces. The fourth group are the Javanese homeland provinces (which also include Lampung given the majority Javanese population and very long settlement history). The last group are outliers, which include Bangka-Belitung, West Sumatra and Gorontalo. Bangka-Belitung even though its predominantly non-Javanese Muslim region, it has a long history of supporting PDI-P candidates. Megawati did better here in 2009 than she did in Central Java. Its resource economy was severely impacted by lower commodity prices, Prabowo only got 36.3% vs 32.73% in 2014. West Sumatra despite a generally healthy economy, with per capita GDP growing above 4%, Jokowi's support dropped by 10.14% points to only 12.89%. This had to do with putting Maruf Amin, an NU leader on the ticket. The last outlier, was Gorontalo, which Prabowo's support dropped from 63% to 48% even though growth in per capita GDP went from 5.89% per year to 4.87%. I still haven't figure out why Prabowo lost Gorontalo.
The first column shows the 2019 Elections Results with the Prabowo's share of the vote in the Javanese Home Provinces the same as in 2014. The second column shows the 2019 Elections Results with the Prabowo's share of the vote in the Javanese Home Province adjusted so Prabowo=Sandi's results in Central Java mirror those of Said's 2018 results. The third column contains the actual results

Provinces % of Votes in Javanese Provinces like 2014 % of Votes in Javanese Provinces like Said 2018 Actual; 2019 Results
STABLE: North Sumatra, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Banten, NTB, Central Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, North Maluku, Papua, West Papua, North Kalimantan, Overseas 29,038,542 (2014: 54,29% 2019: 54.52% +124,998 votes) 29,038,542 29,038,542
KALLA: Aceh, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi 5,868,052 (2014: 38% 2019 66.10% +2,494,919 votes) 5,868,052 5,868,052
RESOURCE: Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, Bengkulu, Riau Island, West Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, West Sulawesi 10,756,042 (2014: 45.73% 2019: 54.16% +1,673,573 votes) 10,756,042 10,756,042
jAVANESE: Lampung, Central Java, East Java, Yogyakarta 21,878,185 23,580,062 15,568,118 (2014: 41.23% 2019: 29.81% -5,968,233 votes)
NON-MUSLIM MAJORITY: Bali, NTT, North Sulawesi and Maluku 1,236,272 (2014: 36.42% 2019: 16.21% -1,540,985 votes) 1,236,272 1,236,272
OUTLIERS Bangka Belitung, West Sumatra, Gorontalo 3,080,198 (2014: 66.97% 2019: 70.94% +181,330 votes) 3,080,198 3,080,198
TOTAL 71,857,291 (49.17%) 73,559,168 (50.30) 65.651.967 (44.85%)
If you factor our the change in results in the Javanese Homeland the election results were a lot closer than many realize. There are three things one can take away from the election.
Despite what many said before the election, most Prabowo voters not impacted by a drop in commodity prices would accept a Jokowi victory, and its why for example you see a small shift in Sundanese dominant districts in West Java for Prabowo. The big shifts came among the Javanese and non-Muslims not impacted by a drop in commodity price, of which the shift in Javanese in favor of Jokowi proved decisive in Prabowo's loss.
Had Prabowo's vote share in the Javanese home provinces remained the same as in 2014, he would gotten a very close result would have bogged down the Constitutional Court and possibly lead to much more serious political unrest. Had he managed repeat what Said did in Central Java in 2018, he would have won with a thin margin.
Note: Here is the spreadsheet with breakdown province by province. The data for 2014, and 2019. For growth in per capita GDP was taken here. The census data on ethnicity was from this book by BPS. The data for 2019 is preliminary, abd based on real counts that are 40% complete.

CAUGHT BY THE JAVANESE TSUNAMI

Here is a table of showing the 4 provinces where the Javanese make a majority of the population, 74% of the Javanese population lives in these 4 provinces.
Province Javanese as % Total Jokowi 2014 Jokowi 2019 Change
East Java 80.0% 53% 66% 13%
Central Java 97.5% 67% 77% 10%
DI Yogyakarta 95.5% 56% 69% 13%
Lampung 63.5% 53% 60% 7%
For East Java I estimate about 58% of the Javanese population voted for Jokowi in 2014, and in 2019 about 73%. Madurese make up 17.5% of East Java's population. On Madura Island where 60% of Madurese in East Java live, Prabowo got 73% of the vote. In East Java, many districts in the North have a mixed Javanese/Madurese population, looking at the preliminary data, outside the 4 districts on Madura and 1-2 districts that have a majority Madurese population, the only district that showed no shift toward Jokowi is SBY home district of Pacitan.
In Central Java, it not only caught Prabowo-Sandi by surprise, but the provincial PDI-P organization as well. Although, Jokowi targeted to get 80% of the vote in Central Java, Ganjar Purnomo, the Governor of Central Java, was targeting 70% of the vote in Central Java. This was reflected down to the kabupaten level, in Sragen, PDI-P officials were targeting 74%, but got 80% according to the quick count. This was a safe assumption given that Ganjar only got 58% against Said, and Jokowi was facing a much better funded campaign in 2019 than Ganjar did in 2018. I think the PDI-P assumed Jokowi path to victory would involve getting more votes among non-Javanese Muslims than he did.
There is assumption is that religious minorities and Javanese voted for similar reasons, I don't think is valid given that most Javanese voted along similar lines as other Muslims in the Jakarta election.
NU Madurese members still voted for Prabowo like they did in 2014, while Javanese voters in Central Java, East Java and Yogyakarta showed a large swing to Jokowi, particularly in areas where Jokowi lost or won by narrow margins. In Galur and Kota Gede Kecamatan in Yogyakarta, two Muhammadiyah areas, Prabowo got 55% in 2014, in 2019 he only managed 41 and 45% respectively in 2019. Muhammadiyah didn't endorse the two sides, but most Javanese members vote for Jokowi, most likely because they couldn't stand Rizieq Shibab with his self-appointed title "Imam Besar". In the three districts in Yogyakarta, Kulon Prago, Bantul and Sleman, Prabowo got 48%, 46% and 46% of the vote in 2014, in 2019 it dropped to 32%,32% and 33%. In contrast, Kota Yogyakarta which Prabowo got 40% of the vote, it only dropped to 34%. You see something similar in predominately Javanese districts in East Java, Prabowo won Gresik, East Java with 53% in 2014, he lost with 33% in 2019.
Jokowi's got about 74% of the Javanese vote in Javanese home provinces, and most likely above 70% of the Javanese vote in Javanese dominant districts in West Java like Indramayu and Subang. SBY in 2009 got about 57% of the Javanese vote 2009. Even under the New Order, Golkar never got more than 70% of the vote in Central / East Java.
Given that there was large shifts in how Javanese voted from 2014 and 2019, one should ask "Why Did Javanese shift heavily to Jokowi in 2019?"

PROTECTING THE JAVANESE HOMELAND

The first reason why the Javanese shifted heavily to Jokowi in 2019 was important pillars of Javanese society felt threatened by a common threat (PKS, Gerindra and FPI). The mood in the Javanese homeland was of righteous indignation (atau kemarahan benar in Indonesian), which Jokowi and others on his side were able to channel.
THREATS FROM WEST JAVA
Traditionally, the Javanese think of power as a concentric circle, with Central-East Java at the center, and everything radiating outward. Serious threats have always come from either the North (Mongols and Japan) or from the West (Dutch). This continued after independence, from 1949-1960, the Darul Islam movement was centered in West Java, In 1998, riots moved from Medan to Jakarta than to West Java than to Central Java before petering out in Surabaya. During May Riots, Wiranto called troops from KODAM Diponegoro from Central Java to secure Jakarta, and that is why the riots lasted 48 hours. He couldn't trust Kostrad or KODAM Siliwangi, Today, you see the same "threats" from West Java in the form of Gerindra-PKS-FPI alliance in the 2019 Presidential Election. To the Javanese living in the Javanese home provinces, Jakarta isn't the center. but an outlying, unstable and problematic "territory".
The reason for this is since the fall of the Kingdom of Sunda in 1500s, there has been a power and cultural vacuum in West Java. The subsequent Muslim kingdoms in West Java, whether the Cirebon or Banten Sultanates, never filled the void left by the Kingdom of Sunda for the Sundanese. The Sundanese are a people in crisis. They belonged to the Dharmic world like the Javanese-Balinese, but since the fall of the Kingdom of Sunda, they have been wondering adrift,
How would your average Javanese feel when Prabowo or Sandi enters their town being escorted by FPI members? To many its like an invading army coming from the West, lead by a traitor, Prabowo. This is ironic, given that elite betrayal of the ordinary people is a common theme in Prabowo's political campaigns. Here is a video of scuffle between residents and FPI, who were guarding Prabowo in Gresik, East Java. Prabowo won Gresik in 2014, but lost heavily in 2019. You see this across East and Central Java, in predominately Javanese districts which Jokowi had lost or won with small margins in 2014, you see big shifts sometimes as much as 15-25 percentage points favoring him. The biggest difference between Sudirman Said's 2018 Campaign and Prabowo-Sandi Campaign was FPI did not have significant involvement in the Said's campaign.
Most Javanese are OK with FPI, as long as they stay away from Central Java and East Java, and don't take control of Islam nationally. The animosity toward FPI is attributed in part, because most of its top leadership are Arab Indonesians. No senior national figure talked openly about their ethnicity, until Hendropriyono open his big mouth. The thought of Rizieq Shibab, an Arab-Betawi half-breed, even getting near the Ministry of Religion, would cause many Javanese to throw up.
Why did Prabowo-Sandi allow FPI to get involved in the East-Central Java campaign?. My theory is it could be used to maintain support of FPI and other conservative groups in other regions. Prabowo and Gerindra don't have a strong grassroots, and with his supporting parties not willing to fully commit manpower to support him in East and Central Java, he was dependent on groups like the FPI.
JAVA WAR 1825-30
The Javanese, like many Asian societies, view history as cyclical and repeating, not linear as Westerners or Arabs do. You see a similar themes emerge during the 2019 Election and the Java War of 1825-30. The Java War of 1825-30 is important in explaining politics in the Javanese Homeland, because its crucible of modern Javanese "nationalism" and politics. It was the first time all segment of Javanese united in fighting a common enemy. Secondly, the Java War took place during the period (1755-1860s) that saw a unification of Javanese culture under the court culture of Surakarta-Yogyakarta, Thirdly, the laid the template for successful mobilization of the Javanese to this day.
When Indonesians study pre-Independence history, wars against the Dutch and other colonist are seen as a stepping stone to the Indonesian War of Independence. But the reality is more people died in absolute terms during the Java War than Indonesia's War of Independence from 1945-1949. One must remember the population of Central and East Java in 1825 was only 1/8 of the population of Java in 1945. During the Java War, the Dutch lost 20,000 men, more than double their deaths in the Indonesian struggle of independence. The Java War proved so costly for the Dutch, they were thinking of abandoning colonial possessions on the north coast of Central and East Java.
For our purposes, the Java War is important because it illustrates two important aspects of Javanese society that continue to this day. Javanese society is conservative, and Diponegoro was first and foremost a conservative. The cause of the Java War was the gradual break down of the arrangement between the Javanese and the Dutch from the Treaty of Giyanti in 1755 to the dissolution of the Dutch East Indies company in 1799. As Carey's points out
Later, in his peace proposals which he transmitted to the Dutch through one of his army commanders, he expressed the hope that the Dutch would remain as settlers and traders in Java provided that they agreed to live on the north coast (pasisir). This was possibly in keeping with the traditional Javanese kraton view, which held that the Dutch were legitimate co-rulers in Java as the descendants of the Sundanese kingdom of Pajajaran. There was much then in Diponegoro’s war aims which hankered for a revival of the old political system which had been in force before Daendels’s period of administration.
The reason for the break down in the arrangement ultimately lay with the invasion and occupation of the Netherlands by Napoleon from 1795 -1813.
Secondly, in Javanese society, there are three pillars - the secular elites (traditionally the Javanese nobility). santri and their communities and the masses. There was a great deal of suspicion between the Javanese nobility and the santri. All three pillars were negatively impacted by the break down of the arrangement.
The years immediately preceding the Java War thus prepared the way for an extensive social rebellion against Dutch rule and against the ruling élite in the Yogyakarta kraton which affected all classes of Javanese society. There only remained the need to await the emergence of a leader with sufficient prestige to weld together the disparate elements into an effective alliance. Dipanagara was such a leader for he had extensive contacts with the Javanese nobility, the religious communities, and the countryside.
While some Muslims in Indonesia see the Java War, as religiously motivated, it was inspired by Javanese conservatism.
Here Diponegoro himself gave a lead by sparing Chinese and European prisoners, and by going so far as to consider making a captured Dutch official one of his principal administrators. Later, in his peace proposals which he transmitted to the Dutch through one of his army commanders, he expressed the hope that the Dutch would remain as settlers and traders in Java provided that they agreed to live on the north coast (pasisir). This was possibly in keeping with the traditional Javanese kraton view, which held that the Dutch were legitimate co-rulers in Java as the descendants of the Sundanese kingdom of Pajajaran. There was much then in Diponegoro war aims which hankered for a revival of the old political system which had been in force before Daendels’s period of administration.

TWO PILLARS OF JAVANESE SOCIETY

Like the Java War, the 2019 Election in Central Java, DIY and East Java could be seen conservative Javanese reaction against groups under Prabowo-Sandi's campaign like Gerindra, FPI and PKS. In this section I will talk about the first 2 pillars, secular pillar (Yogyakarta Sultanate and the PDI-P) and religious pillar (NU). In separate sections I will talk about ordinary Javanese.

SECULAR PILLAR
Hamengkubuwono X publicly remained neutral. However, it was clear from photos during Jokowi and Prabowo visits to the Kraton, the Kraton backed Jokowi. Here is a photo of Jokowi with the Sultan, the Queen consort and all the princesses, and here is a photo with Prabowo and the Sultan. Here is a photo of Jokowi and Jusuf Kalla with the Sultan during 2014 campaign, and Prabowo with the Sultan in 2014. As you see the photos of Jokowi with the Sultan in 2014, and Prabowo with the Sultan in 2014 and 2019 are the essentially the same, the Sultan met with them in side rooms and without the princesses. In 2014, the Kraton was neutral. What changed during the five years? First, the Sultan declared his eldest daughter heir apparent in 2015, going against palace norms and tradition. Secondly, Prabowo aligned himself too closely with the PKS and more importantly with FPI, and these groups are more disposed to supporting the Sultan's brothers position that females can't lead the Sultanate. I think Prabowo realized this, and brought along Titiek Suharto and Rachmawati Soekarnoputri, to soften his image.
The PDI-P felt threatened by Gerindra, because Gerindra setup a lot of Posko (campaign offices) in both Central Java and Yogyakarta. They even establish their HQ in Solo, Jokowi's home town. This is what Ketua DPC PDIP Kota Semarang PDIP Hendrar Prihadi said, on Dec 12, 2018
Menurut Hendrar, rencana kubu Prabowo-Sandi yang akan membangun posko kemenangan sampai ke tingkat RT/RW, merupakan khayalan tinggi karena pembuatan posko secara masif membutuhkan biaya yang tidak sedikit."Sudah tahu belum di Jawa Tengah ada berapa desa, berapa RT-RW. Bangun posko tidak murah, biayanya besar," katanya.
Ketika posko Prabowo-Sandi berdiri, kata Hendrar, seketika kader PDIP semakin bersemangat untuk memenangkan pasangan Jokowi-Maruf. Rencana pembangunan posko pemenangan itu dikatakan cawapres nomor urut dua Sandiaga Uno untuk mengoyak mitos Jateng kandang banteng.
Without full support from BPN coalition partners, particularly PAN, PPP and Demokrat, Prabowo and Sandi were just firing blanks.

RELIGIOUS PILLAR
With NU, whether in East or Central Java, they felt threatened by Prabowo-Sandi's association with groups like FPI, and their willingness to lift the ban on HTI. During the campaign, NU took a hardline message
And their message is not a conciliatory one; rather, it’s message of “us or them”. NU and PKB leadership now propagate a kind of militant pluralism, which paints any Islamist group affiliated with Prabowo as a threat to the nation. NU’s leaders, from the national level down to local ulama on Java, Madura and, in West Nusa Tenggara, the NU and Nahdatul Wathan-affiliated Tuan Guru, have been enlisted to convince the electorate not just that Jokowi will support these traditionalist Islamic institutions and their community of santri, but also that a Prabowo victory would open the door to an Islamic caliphate, and the rise of an emboldened Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia (HTI).
The assumption here is the NU can dictate to its branches and masses what to do, but my view it was the ordinary Javanese and NU grassroots members in Central and East Java that pushed NU central leadership to act. Despite what the article says, I don't think any of the senior leadership in NU expected the non-Javanese NU affiliated branches would have much luck in getting their members to back Jokowi.
Non Javanese NU branches and leaders are more favorably disposed to FPI than Javanese NU branches. NU in Madura, unlike their counterparts on Java, had good relations with FPI. Mar'uf Amin stated the position of NU with regards to FPI
Mereka (FPI) juga memecahkan diri atau keluar dari kelompok NU karena menganggap NU kurang keras. Padahal bukan kurang keras, tapi NU bijak, santun untuk berjuan. Sekarang ini justru bukan antisipasi lagi, sudah ada di Indonesia, Wahabinya ada, bahkan HTI-nya, bahkan juga ada gerakan yang anak-anak kita dulunya tidak puas dengan gerakan yang kurang ekstrem dari NU, kelompok FPI,
Both NU and FPI are opposed to Wahhabi influence in Indonesia.
However, this contrast with others within NU who want FPI disbanded most notably the NU grassports organization like Banser. After FPI clash with residents in Purwakarta, West Java in 2015, NU chairman, Said Aqil Siradj called for the FPI to be disbanded. However, since the 2017 Jakarta election, FPI has penetrated deeper into East and Central Java, as well emerged from a street vigilante group to a center of Islamic and national politics challenge NU. PDI-P and NU have been aligned in past elections like Megawati - Hasyim Muzadi in 2004, and they still lost heavily to SBY in East Java, because there was no common threat to united most of the NU branches in East and Central Java. But FPI presence became more visible in small town Java, ordinary Javanese started to worry which motivated many NU leaders to take action. The top video in youtube for FPI, which had a post in /Indonesia was a video with FPI members confronting police about them wanting to raid a supermarket in Sragen, Central Java to check if employees were wearing Christmas themed clothing. This video got 9.2 Million views, and was uploaded on Dec 21, 2016. Sragan is in right next to East Java, and is in geographic center of Central-East Java. This attempted raid was followed by attempts by FPI to setup a branch in Semarang in April, 2017, which was rejected by the community.
My view is NU only had two choices to remain neutral or back Jokowi. Backing Prabowo was a non starter, given Jokowi popularity among his fellow Javanese and hostility of grassroots NU members in Central and East Java toward FPI. If it remained neutral, the Javanese in the home provinces would most likely vote for Jokowi anyways, and you would ended up with nothing. By negotiating with Jokowi regarding NU support, NU gots something in return. Ma'ruf was important to cover Jokowi against attacks, but NU advanced Ma'ruf as Vice President was to unify NU and get conservatives in NU to go along with what turned out to a full frontal assault against Prabowo and his hardline supporters.
After Diponegoro capture, Javanese society didn't find another leader that could unite them. Starting in the 20th century it became increasingly more difficult as Javanese society became divided on political and religious lines. These divisions culminated in the thr 1965 Anti-Communist purges. In 2019, the secular and religious pillar were united behind Jokowi, as Ganjar Purnowo said,
Kayaknya justru poskonya ditaruh di sana jadi semua semangat. Jadi semua semangat, semua bekerja dan alhamdulillah di Jawa Tengah kondusif ya bekerjanya juga cukup serius. Kelompok masyarakat, kelompok ulama, kebetulan mereka solid untuk mendukung Jokowi-Ma'ruf, maka kolaborasi kekuatan besar itu membikin suara lompatan cukup tinggi,"
PDi-P draws its same support from areas that were once heavily PKI, Time has a way of healing the rifts between these people and NU. In addition, starting with Gus Dur, there has been attempt by some within NU to atone for NU involvement in 1965.
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2019.05.19 04:32 Teachtheteacher 27 [M4F]. Buffalo ANR

I am looking to meet a WNY partner. My wife and I are Poly, but I am mainly looking for a partner for myself. I have been trying to try a nursing relationship, I just have not met a partner that clicks with me.
I am currently a teacher in Kenmore, I am a Fitness Instructor at one of the local gyms, and I love chatting.
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2018.11.11 15:50 cw10799 52 [m4f] WNY/desert southwest - platonic/economic partner - new chapter

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2018.11.10 21:08 cw10799 52 [m4f] WNY/desert southwest - platonic/economic partner - new chapter

So here's the deal. I am ready to start a new chapter in my life. I am a minimalist who loves living in a tiny space and wants to live in a big city, as I feel strongly we should have a small footprint and be the change we want to be in the world. I also love the outdoors, but I think it's wasteful to live there, so I want to have a bit of land where I can, are you ready for this?, dig an underground [room/complex/tunnel/system/weekend getaway].
I had hoped to find someone to spend my life with but I am a very private person who doesn't drink, smoke, or go out to bars or social gatherings, and I work in a profession where I work with data, so I don't meet anyone. On top of that I respect people's privacy and would not want to bother anyone unless they made the first move - and they never have. My daughter who spent time in Tokyo said I'd love it there.
I am in good shape, look young, I'm told, but I don't think I'm very attractive. I have a gap in my teeth I am very self conscious about. I am lucky to have a good education in science and math and I love to learn as much as I can about socialism. I would like to live in a commune, I think life in a big city could be similar.
I love to grow plants, weird plants, cacti, orchids, geophytes. I collect and identify ants and beetles. I read math texts for fun. I am a bit of an activist, and my daughters and I have taken in many people over the years and helped them through hard times. I am a vegetarian mainly for sustainability. I meditate sporadically and teach math at night at community college as a sort of community service. I always seem to have excellent, fun students.
I think someone could live with me and save a lot of money. Maybe just have free housing and a meal now and then. I would be happy just for someone to talk to. Humans are social animals, I have relied on friends and coworkers and have always had close friends, but find myself isolated since moving to a small conservative town.
I am attracted to tomboyish, smart opinionated women, the last three women I've liked have been lesbians, and well, certain biology has conspired to keep those relationships from developing.
I would love to have someone coming out of a difficult situation stay with me, on equal footing, as an economic partner, be they from a difficult relationship, just starting out after a difficult start, or coming to a new country. I am not rich, I chose to spend a lot of time with my kids rather than a career, but I work hard and get pretty good jobs as a scientist, data analyst or computer guy. Right now I have a solid job in Western New York State, near Buffalo, but I am looking in El Paso, and have a solid prospect in New Mexico. But I am open to nearly anything, the right person could make things comfortable in Oaxaca or Berlin, Rotterdam or Tokyo.
I speak a little Spanish and German, and love learning a little, Japanese, Korean, Swedish, Icelandic and Nahuatl. And would be happy to leave this country, but I am also happy to stay and fight to make it better. I would love to live in Mexico and help make it an even better place to live, and look forward to the day US citizens try to go to Mexico to find a better life.
This may seem all very vague, and it is. I am open to largely anything, but primarily an equal partner, who is glad to ride bicycles to a coffee shop and spend hours talking about anything and everything from politics to the environment, to better ways to make a cave house.
The world is ours, there for us, we should be bold and do what we want to do, and as trite as it sounds, be the change we want to see in the world. I am not looking for anyone of any particular background or education level or particular looks or age. Any country, any language. I can see a lot of things working. So just for a moment think of what you really want to do, maybe we can make that happen together, as some sort of partners. Even if you are just in the planning stage, maybe we are a match, mentally and can start to lay the groundwork long distance for our big plans. Cheers :)
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2018.11.09 23:11 G0mega Collegiate Esports & Esports in the Ivy League / at Brown

Hey a2c, I'm a current sophomore at Brown University, and co-president of Brown Esports, Brown's club for both casual and competitive gaming on campus.
Brown Esports actually today became Partners on our Twitch (ahhh), which I think lends credence towards the point of this post:
Gaming and esports is only becoming more and more popular in college, and if you are interested in its success, pursue it!
When a lot of people think of Brown or the Ivy League, they imagine a student body that would never have time to waste on playing video games. This is a misconception I came to Brown to change minds about.
Competitive gaming is just absolutely incredible as to what it offers -- between incredible competition, the ability to meet people across the country or world you would otherwise never know, and being able to improve in so many disciplines (streaming = social skills, graphic design, branding, for example).
At Brown, our club has over 250 members and is one of the most active clubs on campus. For the Ivy League, we are going to be hosting a conference with all the Ivies in attendance in 2019 — meaning this literally is the beginning of esports in the Ivy League right now (aka the best time to get involved).
Basically, I just wanted to post here and remind everyone applying to colleges that gaming is not a joke on your application -- if you've seriously done something notable, mention it loud and clear. On my application, I described the charity events that I held through video games & Twitch, and emphasized I wanted to go to Brown to be able to promote video games to the next level.
Also, this is one of my favorite graphs about esports viewership: here -- it's nuts.
TL;DR: Gaming is only going to become more popular, established, and dope -- if you're interested in it, don't lose that passion as you apply to college / are in college, please.
Note: Brown Esports' Twitch is also a really cool way to interact with current students -- we have a bunch of content producers, ranging from first years to masters students, that are extremely down to talk about anything Brown or college!
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